The shared currency found a couple of reasons to climb last week, but could these positive vibes be erased by the upcoming ECB statement? Here’s what might happen.
ECB monetary policy statement (April 10, 11:45 am GMT)
Yep, it’s time for another ECB announcement! Although the EU Brexit Summit on this same day might steal the central bank’s thunder, market watchers are likely to pay close attention to potential changes in rhetoric.
Their March announcement was anything but upbeat, as ECB policymakers slashed their economic forecasts and announced a new loan facility intended to support banks.
Fast forward a few weeks later, not much has improved in terms of economic data, so ECB head honcho Draghi might simply reiterate their cautious assessment. Traders are also getting to get more clues on the central bank’s forward guidance, the possibility of negative interest rates, and details of the new TLTRO.
Note that this announcement will be followed by a presser around 12:30 pm GMT, which means a lot of potential for volatility as traders try to interpret Draghi’s responses.
EU Brexit Summit (April 10)
All eyes and ears will probably be on the EU emergency summit to discuss Brexit options just a couple of days before the U.K. is set to break up with the bloc.
Word through the grapevine is that Tusk is pushing for a “flextension” that could last as long as 12 months while several other European leaders are keen to avoid prolonged uncertainty. PM May has written a letter to request for an extension that might push the divorce date to June 30.
Either way, whatever the 27 leaders agree on during this pow-wow would have plenty of repercussions on the euro zone as much as the U.K. economy.
Overall market sentiment
There are no major event risks from the Swiss economy this week, but franc bulls might still be reeling from last week’s remarks by Swiss National Bank governing board member Martin Schlegel on negative rates.
Apart from that, risk sentiment could also shake things up for both the franc and euro in the days ahead, along with dollar price action.
Keep in mind that the FOMC minutes are up for release and the U.K. is on track to exit the EU by the end of the week (as of this writing) so it’s gonna be an eventful one. Be careful out there!
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for April 1-5.