It’s all about low to medium-tier reports once more for the euro zone, and traders are setting the bar pretty low thanks to weak leading indicators and the ECB’s downbeat outlook.
Medium-tier euro zone data (starting Feb. 4, 8:00 am GMT)
In the absence of major catalysts on the docket, euro traders might simply take their cues from low to medium-tier releases from the individual economies.
Keep in mind, however, that market watchers are already expecting to see more signs of a slowdown, even from hotshot economies like France and Germany. After all, the latest batch of leading indicators such as PMIs haven’t been all that upbeat.
Among these reports, the euro zone retail sales release on Tuesday’s London session could be worth watching as a noticeable drop of 1.5% is eyed after the earlier 0.6% gain. Recall that Germany recently reported a sharp decline in consumer spending, likely dragging the region’s numbers down.
Traders are also likely to keep close tabs on Germany’s factory orders and industrial production numbers lined up in the latter half of the week as this would provide more deets on how bad the slowdown is for the biggest kid in the bloc.
EU economic forecasts (Feb. 7, 10:00 am GMT)
The European Commission is due to release their economic forecasts for EU member states over the next couple of years, so this could put the spotlight back on delayed tightening hopes and even the possibility of restarting QE.
Recall that the ECB already downgraded their own estimates for inflation and growth, with Draghi also pinning part of the blame on global uncertainties like Brexit and trade tensions. The EU might reiterate these concerns, especially since Brexit discussions seem to be headed nowhere these days.
Other than these, do keep an eye out for overall market sentiment and dollar direction when trading the euro and the Swiss franc.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for January 28 – February 1!