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All eyes and ears might be on the ECB decision this week as the central bank is expected to increase its pandemic stimulus program.
The euro edged mostly higher against its rivals last week while the franc took some hits as the SNB sounded dovish.
Here are more potential catalysts to watch out for:
ECB monetary policy decision (June 4, 12:45 pm GMT)
- Central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00% for now
- Market watchers are looking out for a 500-750 billion EUR increase in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP).
- EUR currency pairs are also likely to react to how long the program will be extended
- Policymakers might also adjust the amount of deposits subject to negative interest rates
Low-tier Swiss data
- Retail sales (June 2, 7:30 am GMT) to slip by 4.9% y/y after earlier 5.6% slump
- Manufacturing PMI (June 2, 8:30 am GMT) to tick higher from 40.7 to 42.0
- Q1 GDP (June 3, 6:45 am GMT) to show 2.0% contraction after earlier 0.3% expansion
- CPI (June 4, 7:30 am GMT) to show 0.1% dip in price levels
- SNB foreign currency reserves (June 5, 8:00 am GMT) to confirm if central bank has started to intervene in forex market
Overall risk sentiment
- Market watchers are still keeping tabs on the COVID-19 pandemic, with stronger reactions to positive developments like quarantine measures being eased or vaccine trials going well
- Tensions between the U.S. and China also impact risk sentiment, along with brewing conflict in Hong Kong
- Brexit-related updates appear to be spurring intraday volatility among euro pairs
Technical snapshot
- Long-term moving averages show that most euro pairs are on bullish grounds, except for EUR/CHF.
- In particular, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP are looking strongly bullish while the rest are seeing a weakening bullish trend.
- Stochastic confirms that EUR/CHF is looking bearish in the overbought region.
- The oscillator also puts EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP in the oversold territory.
- Franc pairs look mostly overbought based on Stochastic, except for USD/CHF giving off bullish vibes.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price recap for May 25-29!
