I’m seeing upbeat data from Australia and China, so this pair might be due for a bounce off its symmetrical triangle support soon.
Will upcoming data from the U.S. spur a big move?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Asia-London session watchlist looked at a consolidation break on GBP/AUD ahead of Australia’s jobs release and China’s data dump. Be sure to check that out if it’s still a valid play!
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Fed head Powell pledged “powerful support” despite inflation threat
- Australian economy added 29.1K jobs in June vs. projected 19.7K gain
- Australia’s jobless rate improved from 5.1% to 4.9%
- Chinese economy grew 7.9% in Q2 2021 vs. 8.0% forecast, 18.3% previous
- Chinese fixed asset investment surged 12.6% vs. 12.1% forecast
- Chinese industrial production up 8.3% vs. 7.8% consensus
- Asian markets advance thanks to upbeat Chinese data
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.S. Philly Fed index and Empire State manufacturing index at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization at 1:15 pm GMT
- Fed head Powell’s testimony at 1:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand quarterly CPI at 10:45 pm GMT
What to Watch: AUD/USD
Despite the slight GDP miss, China’s data dump was mostly better than expected, as industrial production and retail sales still beat forecasts.
Asian markets reacted positively to these numbers, likely keeping risk appetite in play for the rest of the day.
Will this be enough to spur an AUD/USD bounce?Data from the Land Down Under wasn’t too shabby either, as the economy added 29.1K jobs in June and saw a dip in its jobless rate from 5.1% to 4.9%.
On the flip side, the dollar could stay under downside pressure since Fed head Powell keeps downplaying the prospect of tapering.
His latest testimony was all about maintaining “powerful support” for the U.S. economy, and he could repeat these same sentiments in another speech today.
The U.S. also has its industrial production and capacity utilization reports lined up, just after the release of the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing indices.
If this reports spur enough volatility, AUD/USD might dip to the triangle bottom around the .7450 minor psychological mark.Stochastic is suggesting that the support might hold, as the oscillator is pulling out of the oversold region. If so, AUD/USD could recover back to the triangle top or perhaps attempt a break higher.
The moving averages, on the other hand, hint that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In that case, a break below the triangle bottom could spur a drop that’s the same height as the chart pattern!