Major Eurozone economies are popping up decent PMI numbers today!
Will they be enough to break EUR/CAD’s downtrend?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily Asia-London Session Watchlist looked at EUR/AUD’s Fib retracement levels ahead of Eurozone’s PMI releases. Be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Recovery in Australian manufacturing gathered further pace in March
- Japan business mood turns positive in Q1 amid pandemic -BOJ tankan
- Australia retail sales fall less than expected in February
- Australia’s trade surplus below consensus in February
- Australia’s Queensland state premier says Brisbane lockdown to end
- China’s manufacturing recovery loses more momentum, Caixin PMI shows
- Asia’s factory recovery picks up but cost pressures emerge
- Asian stocks advance on U.S. spending plan, regional factory data
- France March factory activity growth fastest since 2000 -PMI
- Swiss consumer prices increased by 0.3% in March
- Spanish factory activity grows in March at fastest pace since 2006 -PMI
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- OPEC and friends to output policy decisions today
- U.S. Challenger job cuts at 11:30 am GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s building permits at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s manufacturing PMI at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. final Markit manufacturing PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
What to Watch: EUR/CAD
Australia and Japan have set the tone for upside surprises of PMI releases but Eurozone economies like France, Spain, and Germany ain’t slackin’ either.
Will the strong PMI reports be enough to lift the common currency against the Loonie?Recall that Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – will enter a 28-day lockdown this weekend. The announcement probably wouldn’t have as much impact on EUR/CAD (Eurozone also has lockdown plans) if the Bank of Canada (BOC) didn’t hint at tapering much sooner than the European Central Bank (ECB). BOC could end up choking Canada’s economic recovery!
Over the next couple of hours, we’ll see mid-tier Canadian data releases like building permits and manufacturing PMI. More importantly, OPEC and its friends will be announcing their production cut plans for the foreseeable future.
If OPEC’s production cut plans don’t line up with the demand slowdown that they’re projecting, then we could see crude oil dip in the markets and likely take the oil-related Loonie along with it.
EUR/CAD could hit the 38.2% Fib near the 1.4820 and trend line resistance. It could even break above the trend line if the euro bulls get enough momentum!
But if Canada’s data releases surprise to the upside, or if traders remain worried over the Eurozone’s growth despite the rosy PMI reports, then we could see EUR/CAD return to its weekly lows or even make new 2021 lows before the week ends.