We’ve got loads of business sentiment updates from both Australia and Europe around the corner, making EUR/AUD one to watch for the session.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at an enticing technical setup in NZD/JPY, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
Australia Manufacturing Index at 9:30 pm GMT
Australia Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 pm GMT
Japan Manufacturers Index at 11:50 pm GMT
Australia Trade Balance, Home loans, Retail sales at 12:30 am GMT (Apr. 1)
China Manufacturing PMI at 1:45 am GMT (Apr. 1)
Germany Retail Sales at 6:00 am GMT (Apr. 1)
Europe Manufacturing PMI 8:00 am GMT (Apr. 1)
What to Watch: EUR/AUD
On the one hour chart of EUR/AUD, we can see the pair has been in a one way down move over the past week, which is actually bringing the pair back to the bottom half of ranging behavior that goes back to the middle of February.
It’s possible we could see the action in EUR/AUD pick up over the next session with the latest PMI data coming from both Australia and Europe, and if there’s a scenario where the price pops back to the top of the range, a short play makes sense if Australian data outperforms European data.
Also, the longer-term trend favors the Aussie at the moment, so re-test of the upper range would likely draw in both technical and fundamental players, especially if broad risk sentiment is leaning positive for the rest of the week.
So, be on the lookout for bearish reversal patterns around the Fibs / major psychological handle of 1.5500 in that scenario before considering a short position. With a daily ATR of around 100 pips, that level could easily be reached if volatility picked up.
For the bulls, a retest of the 1.5300 – 1.5350 area is one to watch for bullish reversal patterns if Australian / China PMI data disappoints, and if it does, look to play a swing move higher, especially if we see broad risk aversion sentiment as the main market driving theme.