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A data-heavy day for both the euro zone and the U.S. got me looking at EUR/USD once again. Which way will the pair go today?

Currency Snapshot:

Major Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
Major Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • Germany’s retail sales at 6:00 am GMT
  • Spain’s manufacturing PMI at 7:15 am GMT
  • Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI at 7:30 am GMT
  • Italy’s manufacturing PMI at 7:45 am GMT
  • France’s final manufacturing PMI at 7:50 am GMT
  • Germany’s final manufacturing PMI at 7:55 am GMT
  • Euro Zone’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT
  • Italy’s unemployment rate at 8:00 am GMT
  • U.K.’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:30 am GMT
  • Euro Zone’s unemployment rate at 9:00 am GMT
  • U.S. ADP employment change at 12:15 pm GMT

What to Watch: EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart
EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

In yesterday’s update we discussed the Fibs serving as resistance right before the end-of-quarter shenanigans.

Fast forward to today and we can see EUR/USD possibly making a break-and-retest setup as it drops from the 100 SMA and channel support retest.

A slew of initial and final PMIs from the euro zone will tell us if EUR/USD can sustain its intraweek downtrend.

But wait, there’s more! Take note that we’ll also see Uncle Sam’s closely watched ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI reports today.

If the U.S. labor market indicators come in as ugly as the initial jobless claims last week, then we could see another anti-dollar drive that would bring EUR/USD back to its late March highs.

But if traders focus more on the euro zone’s latest PMIs and the current risk-averse market theme, then EUR/USD could fall back down to 1.0950 or 1.0870.