A data-heavy day for both the euro zone and the U.S. got me looking at EUR/USD once again. Which way will the pair go today?
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- U.K. shop prices fall further but experts warn virus could drive food inflation
- Australia’s building approvals rise in February
- Caixin China PMI points to stable manufacturing conditions, but outlook remains dim
- U.K. banks scrap dividend payments
- Japan’s business confidence hits seven-year low
- Stockpiling boosts Australia’s manufacturing in March
- RBA minutes: “very material” contraction likely
- Dollar firms as investors brace for global downturn
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Germany’s retail sales at 6:00 am GMT
- Spain’s manufacturing PMI at 7:15 am GMT
- Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI at 7:30 am GMT
- Italy’s manufacturing PMI at 7:45 am GMT
- France’s final manufacturing PMI at 7:50 am GMT
- Germany’s final manufacturing PMI at 7:55 am GMT
- Euro Zone’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT
- Italy’s unemployment rate at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro Zone’s unemployment rate at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. ADP employment change at 12:15 pm GMT
What to Watch: EUR/USD
In yesterday’s update we discussed the Fibs serving as resistance right before the end-of-quarter shenanigans.
Fast forward to today and we can see EUR/USD possibly making a break-and-retest setup as it drops from the 100 SMA and channel support retest.A slew of initial and final PMIs from the euro zone will tell us if EUR/USD can sustain its intraweek downtrend.
But wait, there’s more! Take note that we’ll also see Uncle Sam’s closely watched ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI reports today.
If the U.S. labor market indicators come in as ugly as the initial jobless claims last week, then we could see another anti-dollar drive that would bring EUR/USD back to its late March highs.
But if traders focus more on the euro zone’s latest PMIs and the current risk-averse market theme, then EUR/USD could fall back down to 1.0950 or 1.0870.