A handful of mid-tier reports are due from the top euro zone economies in the upcoming session, so I’m waiting for some momentum on this pair.
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- New Zealand ANZ business confidence index down from -19.4 to -63.5
- Japanese preliminary industrial production up by 0.4% vs. 0.0% consensus
- Japanese retail sales rebound 1.7% after earlier 0.4% drop
- Chinese official manufacturing PMI up from 35.7 to 52.0 vs. 44.9 forecast
- Chinese official non-manu PMI up from 29.6 to 59.3 vs. 42.1 forecast
- Australia expands lockdown measures to combat coronavirus spread
- Asian markets slightly higher on upbeat Chinese headline data
- Crude oil ticks up on U.S. and Russia agreement to oil market talks
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- German import prices and U.K. current account balance at 7:00 am GMT
- Swiss retail sales at 7:30 am GMT
- French consumer spending and preliminary CPI at 7:45 am GMT
- German unemployment change at 8:55 am GMT
- Euro zone flash CPI readings at 10:00 am GMT
What to Watch: EUR/USD
Preliminary economic reports from the likes of Germany and France are coming up in the London trading session, and these figures are likely to reflect some of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.
In particular, spending and inflation reports are likely to show hits on account of weaker crude oil prices in the past months and quarantine protocols to keep the contagion in check.It’s also the end of the month and quarter, so I’m counting on profit-taking off the shared currency’s recent rallies as well.
If so, EUR/USD could tumble below the near-term support around 1.0965 and carry on with its longer-term slide. The pair did hit resistance at the 50% Fib and former support at 1.1100 after all, which suggests that sellers could be regaining the upper hand.
It might be safer to wait for the actual economic figures and the euro’s reaction to the releases, though, especially since risk appetite has been present in the earlier session. Note that factory data from China turned out
dubiously surprisingly better than expected, although outlook remains grim.
A pop higher to the 61.8% Fib might provide a better price to short, but make sure you account for the average daily EUR/USD volatility when setting your exit levels.