Partner Center Find a Broker

The U.S. is printing a bunch of mid-tier data ahead of the Thanksgiving break and, after today’s crude oil data, I’m looking at USD/CAD for potential trade setups.

Currency Snapshot:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:

  • Germany’s import prices at 7:00 am GMT
  • Switzerland’s economic expectations at 9:00 am GMT
  • U.S. core durable goods orders at 1:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. preliminary GDP at 1:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Chicago PMI at 2:45 pm GMT

What to Watch: USD/CAD

USD/CAD 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD/CAD 1-Hour Forex Chart

In a few hours Uncle Sam will print mid-tier reports including the durable goods orders, Chicago PMI, preliminary GDP reading, and the Beige book report.

A quick look at the forex calendar tells me that analysts generally expect the reports to maintain last month’s readings, if not print slightly higher numbers.

Stronger numbers could push the dollar higher against the Loonie, which has weaker prospects after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported higher crude oil buildup this week than analysts had expected.

As you can see, USD/CAD is sitting on the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart, a level that’s not too far above an ascending channel support that has been limiting the bulls since late October.

If today’s U.S. data releases print to the upside, then we could see USD/CAD pop higher near the channel support. Otherwise, I’ll be on a lookout for a downside breakout instead.

For one thing, shortened trading days in the U.S. could inspire a bit of profit-taking that would send USD lower against CAD. It also doesn’t help that moving averages are already pointing to “bearish” trends on the 1-hour chart.

So, while there’s still room for a bit of upside movement for USD/CAD, I’ll keep in mind that the pair has already seen heavy gains in the past couple of months, and that a bearish reversal is still on the table.