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EUR/CAD is chillin’ above its rising trend line just as the eurozone PMIs are being released.

Will support still hold?

Or will Canada’s retail sales release spur a trend reversal?

Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at USD/JPY’s triangle resistance test after the BOJ decision. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

JPY volatility spikes on MoF’s currency intervention

SNB hiked interest rates by 0.75% from -0.25% to +0.50%

BOE hiked interest rates by 0.50% as expected

U.S. initial jobless claims rose from 208K to 213K vs. 220K forecast

Eurozone consumer confidence index sank from -25 to -29 vs. -26 forecast

U.S. CB leading index chalked up 0.3% dip, following 0.5% decline

Australian flash manufacturing PMI improved from 53.8 to 53.9

Australian flash services PMI up from 50.2 to 50.4

U.K. GfK consumer confidence index down from -44 to -49 vs. -42 forecast

French flash services PMI up from 51.2 to 53.0 vs. 50.5 forecast

French flash manufacturing PMI down from 50.6 to 47.8 vs. 49.8 consensus

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:

U.K. flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:00 pm GMT
Canadian retail sales at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 1:45 pm GMT
SNB head Jordan’s testimony at 3:30 pm GMT
Fed Chairperson Powell’s speech at 6:00 pm GMT

Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️

What to Watch: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart

Are we about to see a reversal on this pair soon?

EUR/CAD is testing its short-term rising trend line right around the release of PMI readings from Germany and France, and it looks like a breakdown is due.

The actual figures turned out mostly weaker than expected, with only the French services PMI coming out better than expected.

This slowdown in business activity might give the ECB enough reason to pause from its policy tightening, which might bring bearish vibes for the shared currency.

Canada’s upcoming retail sales release could add to this pair’s volatility in the next trading session, as analysts expect a sharp drop in consumer spending. Weaker than expected figures might even allow the EUR/CAD uptrend to resume.

For now, price is finding some support at the 61.8% Fib that’s right in line with the trend line and an area of interest. If it holds, the pair could make its way back up to the swing high at 1.3335 next.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the climb is more likely to resume than to reverse. Also, Stochastic is inching close to the oversold region to indicate exhaustion among sellers.

Don’t forget to check out the average EUR/CAD volatility when setting your exit levels!