USD/JPY just retested the big 145.00 for a third time this month!
Will we see a breakout in the next trading sessions?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at EUR/JPY’s Head and Shoulders pattern breakout after Russia announced a partial military mobilization. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. existing home sales fall for the seventh straight month to 4.8M in August
U.S. crude oil inventories up by 1.142M barrels, below expectations of 2.161M print
As expected, Fed raised its interest rates by 75bps to 3% – 3.25%, the highest since early 2008New Fed dot plot suggests another 125bps increase until end of 2022, “terminal rate” of 4.6% and no rate cuts in 2023
U.S. GDP seen slowing down to 0.2% in 2022 vs. 1.7% estimated in June
U.S. unemployment rate adjusted higher from 3.7% to 3.8% in 2022, and could hit 4.4% by 2023
U.S. headline inflation (as measured by PCE) to slow down to 5.4% by end of 2022, expected to hit 2.8% by end of 2023
NZ consumer confidence picked up from 78.70 to 87.60 in Q3 2022
NZ trade deficit up from 2.1B NZD to 2.4 NZD in August
BOJ’s monetary policies unchanged as expected
EU-27 agree to impose new sanctions against Russia after Putin’s mobilization
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
SNB’s monetary policy decision and presser at 7:30 am GMT
BOE’s policy decision at 11:00 am GMT
U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
Eurozone consumer confidence at 2:00 pm GMT
AU flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 11:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: USD/JPY
Earlier today the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would keep its monetary policies unchanged in September.
The decision highlighted the contrast with the Fed, which has raised its rates by 75bps for a third time AND suggested even more rate hikes until next year.USD/JPY, which had been hugging its trend line support, shot up to the 145.00 psychological handle before trading back below the resistance figure.
Will we see an upside breakout in the next trading sessions?
The odds point to even more buying as more traders price in the BOJ and Fed’s monetary policy divergence.
Look out for a break and then retest of the 145.00 handle before USD/JPY heads for new monthly highs.
Check out USD/JPY’s average volatility to get clues on where you should place your exit points!