Partner Center Find a Broker

Without a major event ahead, the clear range on EUR/JPY may present a short-term opportunity with data ahead from both Japan and the Euro area.

Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at a potential setup on USD/CHF ahead of U.S. retail sales data, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!

Intermarket Update:

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 15209.15 -0.17%
FTSE: 6939.58 +0.71%
S&P 500: 4124.66 -0.41%
NASDAQ: 13857.84 -0.99%
US 10-YR: 1.634%  -+0.011
Bund 10-YR: -0.256% +0.007
UK 10-YR: 0.819% +0.013
JPN 10-YR: 0.091% -0.015
Oil: 62.93 +4.57%
Gold: 1,737.10 -0.60%
Bitcoin: $62,196.44 -2.12%
Ethereum: $2,347.05 +2.08%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Dow jumps 300 points to top 34,000 for the first time amid blowout economic data

World stocks rally as Treasury yields tumble

U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Increases Slightly in April — NAHB

U.S. business inventories rise rose 0.5% in February after increasing 0.4% in January, the Commerce Department said on Thursday

NY Empire State, Philly Fed factory indexes jump in April

U.S. retail sales post largest gain in 10 months; weekly jobless claims fall

Fed’s Daly says not time for taper, still far from goals

Canadian manufacturing sales fell 1.6% to $55.4 billion in February

Canadian jobs surge in March by +634K – ADP

German inflation rate at +1.7% in March 2021

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

U.S. Net Long-term Tic Flows at 8:00 pm GMT
Japan Reuters Tankan Index at 11:00 pm GMT
China House Price Index at 1:30 am GMT (Apr. 16)
China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate at 2:00 am GMT (Apr. 16)
Swiss PPI at 6:30 am GMT (Apr. 16)
Euro area Inflation Rate, Trade Balance at 9:00 am GMT (Apr. 16)
Bank of England Cunliffe speech at 9:00 am GMT (Apr. 16)

What to Watch: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Coming up on the forex calendar, we don’t have much in the way of major economic catalysts. We do have the latest GDP from China to potentially spark short-term broad risk sentiment shifts, but given that it is a lagging indicator, that reaction may be short-lived (barring any major surprises).

But we do have a slew of economic updates from Japan and the Euro area, albeit all low tier economic updates. But it may be enough to spark enough volatility for a short-term trade setup on EUR/JPY, which does have clear technical patterns that could be used if the fundamentals get the market moving.

On the one hour chart above, we can see that the pair has been in a tight range through out April, chopping back and forth between 129.80 to 130.50. The market is actually retesting the bottom of the range at the moment, which could draw in short-term technical buyers.

So unless we get a major surprise update on Friday, it’s likely the bulls will hold the line starting around the 130.00 major psychological handle. And if European data comes in better-than-expected, we could see some buying in the euro between the 129.80 to 130.00 handle.

If European data disappoints, we don’t think it would be enough to spark a break of the support area, but if we see broad risk sentiment turn extremely negative for some reason (e.g., negative vaccine headlines, geopolitical unrest, etc.) and the support breaks, that would likely draw in sellers looking for the relative safety of the Japanese yen, a tendency during most risk-off environments.