USD/CHF has been on a downtrend since the start of the month.

Will today’s U.S. retail sales release extend the dollar’s weakness against the franc?

Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily Asia-London Session Watchlist looked at AUD/USD possibly pulling back after a strong move higher. Be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

  • New Zealand food prices rise 0.5% on year in March
  • CDC panel adjourns without vote on extending J&J COVID vaccine pause
  • Oil edges lower after jumping on U.S. crude stockpiles draw
  • Australia’s jobs growth tops forecasts in March, unemployment drops to 1-year low
  • Bank of Japan’s Kuroda warns of lingering COVID-19 pain for economy
  • Asian shares defensive, dollar struggles near one-month lows

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • BOE’s credit conditions survey at 8:30 am GMT
  • U.S. retail sales at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
  • Canada’s ADP non-farm employment change at 12:30 pm GMT
  • Canada’s manufacturing sales at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. NY manufacturing index at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. industrial production at 1:15 pm GMT

What to Watch: USD/CHF

USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

In a few hours, the U.S. will print its retail sales report for the month of March.

Traders are predicting a strong reading for the release, so it’s possible that the dollar would gain against its major counterparts this week.

If the dollar’s strength extends to USD/CHF, then we could see the pair finally break above a descending channel that has been limiting the bulls’ efforts all month.

USD/CHF could bust through the 100 SMA and revisit the .9260 or .9300 previous resistance levels.

But if today’s retail sales disappoint, or if the parade of other lower-tier data from the U.S. results in the dollar losing pips against the franc, then USD/CHF could drop back down to its April lows.

The .9200 handle is a good initial target for the bears though they can also choose to only partially take profits if they see a strong enough downside momentum.