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With many countries on holiday and the latest U.S. employment update to likely keep traders on the sidelines, we’re checking EUR/USD for a potential setup ahead of the weekend.

Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at EUR/CAD ahead European PMI numbers, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!

Intermarket Update:

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 15008.34 -0.27%
FTSE: 6713.63 -0.86%
S&P 500: 3972.89 +0.36%
NASDAQ: 13246.87 +1.54%
US 10-YR: 1.744%  +0.00
Bund 10-YR: -0.287% +0.002
UK 10-YR: 0.854% +0.032
JPN 10-YR: 0.097% +0.012
Oil: 59.50 +0.57%
Gold: 1,708.90 -0.38%
Bitcoin: 58,673.75 -0.08%
Ethereum: 1,912.54 +3.74%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

S&P 500 climbs more than 1% to close above 4,000 for the first time

U.S. Weekly jobless claims higher than expected despite signs of labor market improvement

McConnell says GOP won’t support Biden’s infrastructure plan, vows to fight Democratic agenda

ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 64.7 in March vs. 60.8 February

France March factory activity growth fastest since 2000 -PMI

Spanish factory activity grows in March at fastest pace since 2006 -PMI

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

Fed Kaplan speech at 10:05 pm GMT
France Budget Balance at 6:45 am GMT (Apr. 2)

What to Watch: EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart

We’ve got the Easter holiday coming up, limiting the economic calendar and likely taking traders away from their desks tomorrow. And we’ve also got the latest U.S. employment update coming tomorrow as well, so the odds are pretty high that volatility will remain low through the Friday Asia and London session, barring any surprise news events. 

So we’re looking at a potential setup in EUR/USD for beyond the Asia and London session, as it is likely there are plenty of setups to consider with NFP coming soon. And given the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar, and the odds of tomorrow’s jobs data to show continue strength in the U.S. jobs recovery, we think the odds favor EUR/USD bears in the short-term to medium-term if we do see positive U.S. jobs data.

In that scenario, we’ll be watching out for bearish reversal candles around current market levels up to the top of last week’s short-term consolidation range (around 1.1830). If so, it’s likely longer-term players will jump back into the downtrend that been ruling this pair throughout the month of March. Or considering that EUR/USD has been trending higher this week, EUR/USD bulls may quickly take profits and add to any potential selling pressure.