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With no major news or events from Canada, it was the usual balancing act of pricing in broad risk sentiment, oil prices and counter currency flows that resulted in a mixed but net loss for the Loonie at the end of the week.

Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CAD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
CAD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

Canadian Headlines and Economic data


Consumer confidence in Canada hits 16-month high on reopenings – ” The index jumped to 58.2 from 56.5 the previous week, the largest one-week increase since July.”

“The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, a gauge of household sentiment, jumped last week to the highest since October 2019 after the country’s two largest provinces — Ontario and Quebec — began to unwind containment measures.”

Brent oil climbs back above $63 with Goldman seeing more gains

Overlay of CAD Pairs & Oil (Black Line): 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CAD Pairs & Oil (Black Line): 1-Hour Forex Chart


Oil prices jump more than $1 on slow U.S. output restart

“Shale oil producers and refiners in the southern United States are slowly resuming production after 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output and nearly 20% of U.S. refining capacity shut down because of last week’s winter storm.”

BOC Gov. Macklem: Monetary stimulus needed for considerable period

“As more people are vaccinated and normal life returns, the Canadian economy will strengthen. But a complete recovery in the labour market will take a long time.”

“Some businesses and some jobs will not return either because of permanent changes in demand or the adoption of new technologies. So, we can expect a long adjustment process.”


Oil prices hit 13-month highs on tighter supplies, Fed assurance on low rates


The Canadian Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 2.0% in January

“Prices for lumber and other wood products (+10.8%) were the biggest contributor to the IPPI’s growth. Prices for softwood lumber increased 19.0% in January, following a strong gain of 20.5% in December. Compared with January 2020, softwood lumber prices surged 112.1%. Persistent demand for softwood lumber was a contributing factor in these increases.”

“Energy and petroleum product prices (+7.9%)—posting its fourth consecutive monthly increase—also contributed greatly to the January growth in the IPPI, primarily as a result of higher prices for refined petroleum products (+8.2%).”

The RMPI increased 5.7% in January, following growth of 3.5% in December.