A bunch of economic releases helped shield the Loonie from more losses last week. Will we see heavier losses for the comdoll this week?
GDP reports (Nov. 30, 1:30 pm GMT)
On Friday Statistics Canada is set to release GDP numbers for September as well as growth figures (including the annualized version!) for Q3 2018.
Businesses and consumers are expected to contribute to the GDP based on higher machinery imports and rising retail sales. Ditto for trade, which saw a slump in imports for the quarter. Meanwhile, analysts see residential construction dragging on growth this time.
Overall, market geeks see a 1.8% – 1.9% growth annualized growth in Q3 after seeing a 2.9% uptick in Q2. Pretty weak, but still within the BOC’s 1.8% forecasts for the quarter.
Significant hits or misses can influence the Loonie’s intraweek trends, so y’all make sure you stick around during the release!
Oil price shenanigans
Higher oil supply and lower global demand have been dragging oil prices sharply in the past couple of weeks. Heck, oil saw its sharpest weekly decline since 2016 last week!
OPEC and 10 non-OPEC allies, led by Russia, will hold their regularly scheduled meeting December 6-7 in Vienna to discuss output policy for 2019.
Until then, the Black Crack will likely take cues crude oil inventory data and tidbits from a joint meeting between the OPEC and Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) this week.
Last Week’s Price Review
The Loonie will soon be marking its third week of net losses since the Loonie is mixed but a net loser for the week (as of 6:00 pm GMT).
The Loonie is turning in another poor performance this week, thanks to yet another week of slumping oil prices.Tuesday’s slump, in particular, really put the hurt on the Loonie.
And as usual, market analysts were blaming the slide in oil prices on global growth concerns.
The Loonie didn’t just take its marching orders from oil prices, though. And this is made clear starting during Wednesday’s U.S. session since oil prices began turning lower again after recovering a bit, but CAD pairs continued to tilt to the upside.
And the apparent catalyst was a Reuters report which cited two unnamed sources as claiming that:
“The Canadian government is considering a request from Alberta to share the cost of buying rail cars to move an additional 120,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the nation’s oil-rich province.”
That probably offset some of disappointment after a U.S. Federal Judge blocked the Keystone XL pipeline a couple of weeks ago.
Anyhow, the Loonie continued to trade higher after that and market analysts were still citing that Reuters report.
However, the Loonie also appears to have gotten an extra bullish boost when Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau was asked about NAFTA or USCMA since he had this to say:
“Of course, that situation was improved when we signed the new NAFTA — or when we will sign the new NAFTA, I hope, next week.”
Unfortunately for CAD bulls, the Loonie’s recovery was just not enough to offset the losses sustained on Monday and Tuesday, so the Loonie is currently a net loser.