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Comdoll traders gather ‘round!
With no Bank of Canada to encourage risk-taking, will Loonie bears dominate this week’s trading?
Let’s see the potential catalysts for your Loonie trades:
Retail sales (Jul 21, 12:30 pm GMT)
- Retail trading dropped by 26.4% in April, which is more than double March’s 10% drop and the largest decline on record
- News that Apple is closing some reopened stores cemented CAD’s bearish tone during the trading session
- Headline retail sales is expected to pick up by 19.1% in May
- Core retail trading could improve from -22.0% to 18.0%
CPI (Jul 22, 12:30 pm GMT)
- Monthly prices increased by 0.3% after falling by 0.7% and 0.6% in April and March respectively
- Core CPI clocked in at -0.1% after a 0.4% dip in April
- Rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. helped drag CAD lower at the time
- Monthly CPI is expected to edge up by 0.5% in June
- Annual inflation is seen improving from -0.4% to 0.3%
- Annual core CPI to inch up from 0.7% to 0.9%?
Crude oil prices
- CAD takes cues from crude oil prices because Canada produces a lot of Black Crack
- So far, OPEC and friends remain optimistic (read: willing to relax production cuts) on the near-term bounce in oil demand as more economies reopen
- Coronavirus cases and reopening headlines will affect the demand for oil and affect the Loonie’s intraweek price trends
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic considers the Loonie “oversold” against the euro on the daily time frame
- CAD is also approaching the oversold territory against the Aussie, pound, and Kiwi
- CAD is on short and long-term bearish trends against AUD, CHF, EUR, and NZD
- Bearish trends against JPY, GBP, and USD are starting to show weaknesses
- CAD was most volatile against the European currencies in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for July 13 – 17!