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Comdoll traders gather ‘round!

With no Bank of Canada to encourage risk-taking, will Loonie bears dominate this week’s trading?

Let’s see the potential catalysts for your Loonie trades:

Retail sales (Jul 21, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Retail trading dropped by 26.4% in April, which is more than double March’s 10% drop and the largest decline on record
  • News that Apple is closing some reopened stores cemented CAD’s bearish tone during the trading session
  • Headline retail sales is expected to pick up by 19.1% in May
  • Core retail trading could improve from -22.0% to 18.0%

CPI (Jul 22, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Monthly prices increased by 0.3% after falling by 0.7% and 0.6% in April and March respectively
  • Core CPI clocked in at -0.1% after a 0.4% dip in April
  • Rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. helped drag CAD lower at the time
  • Monthly CPI is expected to edge up by 0.5% in June
  • Annual inflation is seen improving from -0.4% to 0.3%
  • Annual core CPI to inch up from 0.7% to 0.9%?

Crude oil prices

  • CAD takes cues from crude oil prices because Canada produces a lot of Black Crack
  • So far, OPEC and friends remain optimistic (read: willing to relax production cuts) on the near-term bounce in oil demand as more economies reopen
  • Coronavirus cases and reopening headlines will affect the demand for oil and affect the Loonie’s intraweek price trends

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the Loonie “oversold” against the euro on the daily time frame
  • CAD is also approaching the oversold territory against the Aussie, pound, and Kiwi
CAD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • CAD is on short and long-term bearish trends against AUD, CHF, EUR, and NZD
  • Bearish trends against JPY, GBP, and USD are starting to show weaknesses
CAD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
  • CAD was most volatile against the European currencies in the last seven days
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for July 13 – 17!