Canada’s economic data got nothing on risk sentiment last week! Will the same themes move the Loonie around this week?
Here’s a list of potential catalysts to watch:
Policy geeks are at the edge of their seats as Canada conducts its Federal Elections today.
Unlike with recent Prime Ministers, Justin Trudeau is expected to fight hard for a second term as his campaign was hit with at least two major issues that may have given Conservatives bet Andrew Scheer enough mojo to steal the top spot.
For now, most pollsters are predicting a possible minority government with Trudeau’s Liberal Party most likely sharing decision-making powers with the smaller New Democratic Party (NDP), Green Party and Bloc Quebecois.
A minority government, or a straight up defeat for Trudeau would mean uncertainty for Canada’s future policies. If the Liberal Party manages to keep majority, however, then we could see the Loonie gain pips against its major counterparts.
Retail sales (Oct 22, 12:30 pm GMT)
Retail activity popped up by 0.4% in July, which was way stronger than the 0.1% decrease seen in June but weaker than the 0.6% increase that analysts had expected.
A closer look told us that motor vehicle and parts, as well as sales at new car dealers mostly offset weaknesses in other sectors.
The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as automobiles, fell by 0.1% after gaining 0.9% in the previous month.
This week market players expect the headline figure to maintain its 0.4% growth while the core reading could gain by 0.1%.
There won’t be other major economic reports scheduled around the retail sales release, so there’s a chance that reaction to the numbers could translate to one-directional intraday moves for the Loonie.
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for Oct. 14 – 18!