Not a lot going from Canada this week, so price will likely take its cues from other catalysts instead.
Which events should you watch? Here’s a short list:
Monthly GDP (Jul 31, 1:30 pm GMT)
The last monthly release showed the economy gaining by 0.3% for the month of April, lower than the 0.5% seen in March but higher than the 0.2% uptick that analysts had expected.
A closer look told us that mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries expanded along with trade and construction, though retail and manufacturing saw weaknesses during the month.
The better-than-expected release tempered expectations of easing from the Bank of Canada (BOC) and boosted the Loonie, at least until traders priced in other economic themes.
This week market players expect May’s monthly GDP to come in at 0.1% while the annualized reading is seen at 1.3% against April’s 1.5% increase.
The report will be printed about five and a half hours from the Fed’s much-awaited policy decision, so y’all still have time to book a pip or two if you’re planning on news trading this event.
Trade balance (Aug 2, 1:30 pm GMT)
Canada clocked in a trade surplus of 762M CAD in May, much better than the 1.1B CAD deficit seen in April and marks the second surplus since December 2016. Huzzah!
Apparently, exports rose by 4.6% on the back of higher motor vehicle sales. Meanwhile, imports gained 1.0% as businesses bought more aircraft.
This week analysts expect to see the economy dip back into deficit to the tune of 0.40B CAD in June. Both imports and exports are also expected to take hits, though the latter could see a sharper decrease.
Planning on trading this event? Keep in mind that the U.S. is printing its closely watched NFP report AT THE SAME TIME as Canada’s trade data.
This means that, unless Uncle Sam’s NFP is a dud or Canada’s trade numbers show significant surprises, then it’s likely that the Loonie will take cues from the NFP rather than the trade balance release.
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for July 22 – 26!