A pretty busy week for Canada, which has employment, trade, and IVEY PMI reports on tap over the next few days. Here’s what you can expect!
Trade balance (Jul 3, 1:30 pm GMT)
Canada registered a 0.97B CAD trade deficit in April, which was much narrower than the downwardly revised 2.34B CAD deficit in March and the 2.8B CAD figure that analysts had expected. In fact, it was the narrowest trade deficit in since October 2018!
Turned out, exports had gone up by 1.3% as higher gold purchases boosted metal and non-metallic mineral products. Sales of wheat and crude oil had also contributed to the positive numbers.
Meanwhile, imports fell by 1.4% as aircraft purchases and consumer goods dropped.
At the time, Loonie bulls celebrated the positive release and boosted the comdoll to its new intraweek highs.
This week analysts expect to see the trade deficit widen a bit to 1.60B CAD in May. If you recall, crude oil prices fell sharply during the month.
If you’re trading the event, you should know that closely watched reports such as the U.S. ADP and ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI releases are due in the same trading session. That means unless we see significant hits or miss, it’s likely that reaction to the trade numbers are muted.
Employment and IVEY PMI numbers (Jul 5, U.S. session)
Canada’s got its own NFP gig! On Friday the economy will print its labor market numbers for the month of June.
Recall that the economy added a net 27,700 jobs in May with full-time employment growing faster than part-time positions. Unemployment rate also fell rom 5.7% to 5.4%, the lowest on record.
Not surprisingly, the Loonie shot higher against its counterparts at the release.
Market geeks see a net employment change of 5,000 in June while the unemployment rate could climb from 5.4% to 5.5%.
Planning on trading the event? First, you should know that Canada’s employment report will be printed AT THE SAME TIME as the U.S. NFP data. Like in the trade balance release, this means reaction can be muted.
You’ll probably have a better chance at pricing in Loonie-specific moves with the IVEY PMI scheduled after the NFP brouhaha.
IVEY PMI is one of the more closely watched leading indicators for Canada’s economy, and this week analysts see it rising from 55.9 to a 56.2 reading in June.
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for June 24 – 28!