A “no cut” meeting from the RBA was the catalyst to get Aussie bulls going, but it was the positive shift in geopolitical themes that kept the party going and put the Aussie as one of the top performing major currencies of the week!
Australia Headlines and Economic data
- The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) rose by 1.8 points to 53.1 points in August (seasonally adjusted)
- Caixin PMI shows factory output growth, but subdued demand still a concern
- Australia posts record surplus but retail sales soggy
- RBA keeps the official interest rate on hold at 1.00%, but leaves door open to cuts – With some market players expecting another cut, this hold by the RBA surprised some traders and was likely the catalyst for traders to lighten up on short Aussie bets. No major change in sentiment from the previous statement and the RBA will likely keep the mindset of being open easing policy “if needed.”
- The AIG Australian Performance of Services Index rose by 7.5 points to 51.4 points in August 2019 (seasonally adjusted)
- Australia’s economic growth slowest since GFC at 1.4%
- China service sector activity rises to three-month high-Caixin PMI
- Hong Kong tensions ease, China signals stimulus – the reduction of geopolitical and economic fears from Asia seems to have been the catalysts for a major turn in global risk sentiment, and likely the main support catalyst for the Aussie after a weak GDP read.
- Australian trade surplus declines to $7.29B in July
- China and US agree to meet in October for trade negotiations – this headline was the catalyst for further global risk-on sentiment and Aussie strength despite a weak Aussie trade update as it broke the rising tensions between the two major economies that grew over the past few week with the rise in tariffs.