Australian data economic data was light and global risk sentiment risk sentiment was on the rise to lead the Aussie on mixed paths versus the major currencies.
Major Market Drivers for the Australia Dollar
Australian data economic data was light on top tier events and we saw no major headlines from the Land Down Under this week, so price action in the Aussie was once driven mainly by global risk sentiment and opposing currency factors.
Global risk sentiment was pretty much on the upswing this week, which can arguably be attributed to several themes playing out:
- Improving U.S.-China trade relations sentiment, especially at the end of the week when the WSJ reports that U.S. officials debate lifting tariffs on China to get a trade deal, and today when news of China’s offer of a way to eliminate U.S. trade imbalance.
- After British PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal defeat on Tuesday and as well as her slim victory in the no-confidence vote on Wednesday, fears of a no-deal Brexit have waned and calls for an extension of Article 50 rises, reducing to probability of several disastrous outcomes for the U.K.
- Continued sentiment that major central banks will not tighten monetary policy as much as previously thought of in 2018 as economic data continues to weaken across the globe, including the U.S., China and Europe.
These themes likely gave the Australian dollar a bit of support as with other risk assets, but it was mid-week where we began to see opposing currency influences mix up Aussie pair price action. The Aussie fell against CAD, USD, & GBP, while gaining on CHF, JPY, and NZD, likely riding the improving US -China theme, as well as a likely boost from news that China just injected a record amount of money to stimulate its economy.
AUD closed the week out with a couple of spikes higher on more US China trade news (possible tariff lift by US, China proposal to eliminate trade imbalances), but it wasn’t enough to make it a bigger winner on the week as CAD, USD, and GBP were able to hold onto small gains into the close.
Australia Headlines and Economic data
- Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge rises 0.4% m/m vs. 0.0% previous
- Home loan approvals fell 0.9% in November