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Aussie traders are in for a busy week as Australia prints its labor market numbers while China releases closely watched manufacturing reports.

Which market themes should you keep in mind if you’re trading the Aussie in the next few days?

I’ve got a quick list!

RBA’s meeting minutes (Sept 15, 1:30 am GMT)

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates unchanged in September
  • What markets didn’t see was for RBA to expand its term funding facility to around 200B AUD
  • The broad anti-dollar sentiment still managed to push AUD 55 pips higher against USD during the London session
  • Analysts don’t expect bombshells from RBA’s meeting minutes though the central bank could hint at further stimulus if needed

Labor market numbers (Sept 17, 1:30 am GMT)

  • A net of 114,700 jobs were added in July, less than the adjusted 228,400 increase seen in June but more than the 30,000 net job additions that markets had expected
  • Unemployment rate inched up from 7.4% to 7.5% and the participation rate popped up from 64.1% to 64.7% as more workers joined the labor market after the lockdown measures
  • AUD hit its intraday highs at the report but eventually bowed down to overall risk aversion in the succeeding trading sessions
  • Traders expect a net job loss of 40,000, with the participation rate increasing to 7.7% and participation rate inching up to 64.8% in August

China’s data dump (Sept 15, 2:00 am GMT)

  • Fixed asset investment to improve its YTD losses from -1.6% to -0.5% in August
  • Industrial production (y/y) to slow down from 4.8% to 4.5%
  • Retail sales to pick up from -1.1% to 0.2% in August
  • Unemployment rate could decrease from 5.7% to 5.6%

Market risk appetite

  • The FOMC statement is the event to watch this week as Powell and his team release their latest economic projections and maybe hint at their new plans regarding inflation
  • Policy announcements from the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could cause intraday fluctuations for the high-yielding Aussie
  • Pandemic-related updates (vaccine, lockdown, and stimulus headlines) will continue to influence AUD’s prices this week
  • The tone for overall dollar demand and closely watched lower-tier releases around the globe can affect the appetite for comdolls like the Aussie

Technical snapshot

  • Bollinger Bands point to the Aussie being “overbought” against the pound
  • Watch out for AUD/NZD hitting “oversold” levels on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
  • EMAs show AUD seeing short-term bearish pressure against EUR and CHF
  • AUD/NZD may soon show retracement or reversal opportunities on the daily
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • Like NZD, AUD was most volatile against the safe havens and the pound in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for September 7 – 11!