AUD Weekly Forecast – Eyes on China’s Data Releases

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The Aussie was at the bottom of the forex heap last week. Can this week’s catalysts turn things around for the comdoll?

Check out the potential market movers that might affect AUD’s prices in the next couple of days:

Consumer and business surveys

AIG’s services index shows Melbourne lockdown contributing to services decline in August
ANZ’s job ads show the recovery from pandemic-related job losses NOT continuing in August
NAB’s business confidence (Sept 8, 1:30 am GMT) to dip from -14 to -18 in August
Westpac consumer sentiment (Sept 9, 12:30 am GMT) expected to improve from -9.5% to -3.1% in September
MI inflation expectations (Sept 10, 1:00 am GMT) to remain at 3.3% in September

Australia does A LOT of trading with China, so reports that might hint at China’s growth tends to affect AUD’s prices
Trade data (Sept 7, Asian session) is expected to show a tighter trade surplus as both exports and imports slow down in August
Annualized inflation (Sept 9, 1:30 am GMT) could slow down from 0.7% to 0.5%, while monthly CPI could decelerate from 0.6% to 0.3% in August
Producer prices (Sept 9, 1:30 am GMT) seen improving from -2.4% to -1.5% in August

Disappointing lower-tier releases from other major economies can hint at slower global economic recovery and drag on AUD’s prices
Economic outlook and short-term policy plans from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) can also influence intraweek trends of the high-yielding Aussie
Lockdown, vaccine, and stimulus prospects in Australia and from around the world will continue to affect the demand for AUD

Stochastic is flagging AUD’s “oversold” conditions against NZD on the daily time frame
AUD is about to reach “overbought” status against EUR and CHF
AUD/CAD remains in neutral territory

SMAs on the daily time frame show the Aussie’s short-term weaknesses against most of its major counterparts
Still, AUD is generally bullish across the board

Like NZD, AUD has seen the most volatility against the safe havens and the euro in the past week