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The RBA is up this week!

Will the central bank end the Aussie’s rallies?

Check out this week’s potential catalysts for the Aussie!

RBA statement (July 7, 4:30 am GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates at 0.25% as expected in June
  • RBA also hinted that the economic downturn was “less than earlier expected”
  • RBA’s optimism, combined with the reopening of economies across the globe propped AUD higher
  • Analysts aren’t expecting policy changes from the central bank this week
  • Watch out for cautiousness or optimism that could inspire intraday trends for the Aussie

China’s CPI and PPI (July 9, 1:30 am GMT)

  • Annualized CPI could inch higher from 2.4% to 2.5% in June
  • Monthly CPI is seen printing at -0.3% after -0.8% reading in May
  • Annualized PPI to improve from -3.7% to -3.1%?

Overall risk appetite

  • There aren’t a lot of top-tier reports from major economies so the Aussie can take direction from market risk sentiment this week
  • The number of coronavirus cases, death and ICU bed rates, and vaccine and stimulus headlines can dictate intraweek trends for the comdoll
  • Keep an eye on the U.S.-China trade negotiations as Trump hitting the campaign trail raises the chances of inflammatory statements against the U.S.’ trading partners

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers AUD as “oversold” against CAD, JPY, USD, and EUR on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • The Aussie is on short and long-term bullish trends against most of its major counterparts
  • Even AUD/NZD is staying above the 200 SMA even as its shorter-term SMAs point to bearish trends
AUD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
  • AUD was most volatile against the safe havens and the European currencies in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk