AUD Weekly Forecast (May 11 – 15)

Australia is printing its labor market numbers while China has a data dump on tap.

Planning on trading the Aussie this week?

Here’s what you can expect from the events!

Labor market numbers (May 14, 1:30 am GMT)

• Australia added 5.9K jobs in March vs. projected 33K drop, unemployment rate up from 5.1% to 5.2% vs. 5.4% consensus
• AUD still dropped during the session as traders took cues from a weak U.S. session trading
• Jobless rate is expected to jump from 5.2% to 7.8% in April
• A net of 4.5 million Australians could have lost jobs for the month
• Participation rate is seen dipping from 66.0% to 65.2%

China’s data releases

• Consumer price index (May 12, 1:30 am GMT) could drop from 4.3% to an annual rate of 3.7%
• Producer prices (May 12, 1:30 am GMT) is seen dropping by another 2.6% in April
• Fixed asset investment (May 15, 2:00 am GMT) to drop by another 8.5% (from -16.1%) in April?
• Industrial production (May 15, 2:00 am GMT) seen gaining by 1.5% after dipping by 1.1%
• Retail sales (May 15, 2:00 am GMT) could post another 5.2% drop

Overall risk sentiment

• Updates on Australia reopening its economy can continue to support AUD
• Top-tier releases like U.S.’ CPI and retail sales and U.K.’s GDP reports can affect traders’ appetite for high-yielding currencies like AUD
• Watch out for other major catalysts and their impact on commodity prices

Technical snapshot

• Stochastic is signaling AUD’s “overbought” conditions against EUR, GBP, USD, and CAD on the daily time frame

• Watch out for reversal opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, and GBP/AUD’s daily time frame

• AUD has seen the most volatility against JPY, CHF, USD, and EUR in the last seven days

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for May 4 – 8!