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Both China and Australia are printing top tier reports this week! Which ones should you watch out for?

Labor market numbers (Apr 16, 1:30 am GMT)

  • Australia saw a net jobs increase of 26,700 in February, higher than the 8,500 expected and the 12,900 seen in January
  • Unemployment rate dipped from 5.3% to 5.1% during the month
  • AUD dropped sharply, as traders were more focused on the RBA cutting its rates and unexpectedly starting QE during the trading session
  • Analysts see a net decrease of 30,000 – 40,000 jobs in March
  • Unemployment rate could jump to 5.4% – 5.5%

China’s data dump

  • Trade balance (Apr 14, Asian session) is expected to show a 175B CNY surplus in March
  • Quarterly GDP (Apr 17, 2:00 am GMT) could drop from 6.0% to -4.1% from a year ago in Q1 2020
  • Fixed asset investment (Apr 17, 2:00 am GMT) is expected to drop by another 15.2%
  • Industrial production (Apr 17, 2:00 am GMT) could fall by 7.0% after a 13.5% decline in February
  • Retail sales (Apr 17, 2:00 am GMT) is seen at +4.0% after a 20.5% drop in February

Market risk sentiment

  • Traders will continue to pay attention to global COVID-19 numbers and look for signs that new cases have peaked in key regions
  • Market movers from other major economies, such as U.S.’ retail sales, BOC’s policy announcement, and oil price updates can also affect demand for the high-yielding AUD
  • Earnings season in the U.S. and overall dollar demand can influence AUD’s intraweek trends

Technical snapshot

  • AUD has gained against ALL of its major counterparts in the last week
  • AUD has seen the most gains against USD, JPY, and CAD in the last seven days

  • AUD is trading above its short-term EMAs on the daily time frame
  • AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and AUD/CHF could see retracements or reversals

  • AUD has been most volatile against USD, JPY, and CHF in the last 30 days