After last week’s consolidation, AUD’s price action looks set for some volatility. Check out which catalysts can affect the comdoll’s prices!
PBoC’s policy decision (Jan 20, Asian session)
- The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) just kept its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 4.15% and its five-year LPR at 4.80% in January.
- A lot of traders had expected lower LPRs after the central bank injected fresh funds into the banking system last week
- PBoC also updated its system to better disclose credit records of both individuals and enterprises
Labor market data (Jan 23, 12:30 am GMT)
- The economy added a net 39,900 jobs in November (vs 14,000 expected) after a 24,800 decline in October. 4,200 full-time jobs were added, while 110,200 acquired part-time employment
- Unemployment rate edged lower from 5.3% to 5.2% and labor participation rate remained at 66.0% for the month
- AUD broke above a weekly consolidation and gained pips across the board for the rest of the week
- Analysts expect a net job addition of 11,000 in December
- Unemployment and participation rates are expected to remain at 5.2% and 66.0% respectively
Flash PMI reports (Jan 23, 10:00 pm GMT)
- Manufacturing declined at its fastest rate in 44 months in December thanks in part to lower new orders, employment, and disruption of deliveries due to Australia’s bush fires
- Services activity for a second month in a row in December
- Markets expect the manufacturing PMI to come in at 49.0 (from 49.2) while services PMI is seen at 49.5 (from 49.8) in January
Overall risk appetite
- Chinese New Year will be celebrated on Saturday, but festivities will start as early as Friday. Watch out for profit-taking and/or lower trading volumes from China
- Markets aren’t expecting U.S.-China trade negotiation updates, so traders could focus on top-tier reports like U.S., Euro Zone, and U.K.’s PMI releases
- Central bank events like the BOJ, BOC, and ECB’s decisions can also affect demand for higher-yielding comdolls
- AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD, and EUR/AUD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily time frame
- AUD/JPY is trading above its short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
- GBP/AUD is trading above its 200 EMA but below the other major EMA parameters. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities
- AUD has lost the most pips against CHF, CAD, NZD, and EUR and only gained pips against JPY in the last 30 days
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for January 13 – 17!