Positive risk sentiment pushed the Aussie higher last week. Can the bulls maintain their momentum this week?
Here are economic catalysts that could affect the comdoll’s price action:
China’s data dump (Monday, Asian session)
Aussie bulls and bears’ busy week starts with China printing a bunch of top-tier economic reports that could tell us just how much the economy is stinging from the U.S.-China trade conflict.
Fixed asset investment, which helps gauge business confidence in the long term, is expected to maintain its 5.7% YTD annualized figure in August.
Industrial production, which reflects strength of the manufacturing sector, is projected to jump from 4.8% to 5.3%. Finally, retail sales could accelerate from 7.6% to 7.9% in August as prices on some key products pop higher.
There are not a lot of other reports scheduled around China’s releases, so you can bet some pips that today’s releases will cause a blip or two on Aussie’s intraday price action.
RBA’s meeting minutes (Sept 17, 2:30 am GMT)
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates at a record low of 1.0% in September. Governor Lowe and his team warned, however, that “an extended period of low interest rates” is needed to reduce unemployment and encourage inflation.
For now, he and his team are waiting to see the effect of their back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July as well as developments in the labour market before they make any more changes to their policies.
At the time of the release, RBA’s decision was drowned by news that the U.S. has branded China as “currency manipulator” and China retaliating by limiting the yuan’s weakness.
This week we’ll know more about the RBA members’ thoughts on the economy. If they express more concern over the global demand slowdown and increased trading conflict, then we could see the Aussie trade lower.
Labor market numbers (Sept 19, 2:30 am GMT)
The economy added a net of 41,100 jobs in July, much higher than the 14,000 increase that market geeks had expected. Details tell us that 34,500 workers were posted with full-time jobs, while 6,700 workers found part-time employment.
The labour force participation rate edged higher from 66.0 to 66.1, which is partly why the unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% for the month.
This week analysts expect another 20,000 net job additions and for the jobless rate to maintain its 5.2% reading.
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for September 9 – 13!