Jack the Pipper

Buy the rumor sell the news, you might say. But there was no rumor RBNZ was going to “sound” so negative. Maybe a rally because we all know the downside, so any surprise ill likely be positive, so why not buy. Well, hmmm….

We shared this chart many moons ago in Currency Currents. Just checking in; nothing profound to add here other than to suggest how interesting the symmetry of this pattern.

According to Reuters, “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.0 percent at a policy review on May 3, though a growing number of economists expect a cut, an updated Reuters poll released on Monday showed.

The US dollar, based on the US dollar index, has been in a range for last 13 months. I have been working off the view we are simply in a correction lower with another bull market leg due to take the US dollar index to new cycle highs.

Mr. Carroll, I think we have entered the world of nonsense; it seems pervasive, but as it applies to monetary and fiscal policy nonsense is the word. For the down the rabbit hole we have gone.

If you’re a longer term trend follower, and you trade the US dollar index using an exchange traded fund, or the listed futures contract, you may not be a happy camper.

Near-term looking for stocks to stage a correction lower; commodities to follow; bonds to edge higher; and the dollar to work higher again in the wedge pattern.

The US economy is doing well; but not that well. Inflation isn’t a concern, but we should be concerned as its ticking higher.

Analysts across this fair land and across the globe are now pondering and prognosticating what the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) notorious Dot-Plot will portray later today, as Janet parses the data and her words with extreme caution in order to maintain the proper cryptic tone we’ve come to hate so much.

In the midst of the great commodities boom past, despite the prognostications of many it was never going to end, e.g. one top seer was fond of asking us to visualize every Chinese citizens eating just one egg and one strip of bacon and having a glass of juice every day for breakfast and voila–commodities investing nirvana.