Jack the Pipper

Boy oh boy can copper move fast. It can also change directions rather sharply. And that doesn’t usually make for a settling combination.

As Jack has noted, he understands the reason the euro and risk might bounce after the eurozone leaders “struck a deal,” but we saw moves yesterday that are, thus far to us, inexplicable.

I wasn’t sure how I wanted to spin the word ‘confidence’ around today – there are so many ways. So let’s just spin them all …

I keep thinking that any day now the Australian dollar will take a very deep dirt nap. My pecking away has been rewarded at times, but my big spot FX bets (those based on max confidence moments), have proven painful to my trading account.

It used to be we only had bulls, bears, bucket shops, manipulators (aka specialists), syndicates (aka manipulators), sheep, wolves, tipsters, and an assorted array of those fond of larceny occupying Wall Street; in short, the embodiment of what Goldman Sachs built its reputation upon.

S&P downgraded Spain. But who cares? Italy had a disappointing bond auction. But who cares?

It didn’t matter which market we were watching – currencies, commodities, stocks – they had become oversold after a plunge throughout the month of September. We expected a bounce and positioned our members accordingly. It is paying off so far.

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) has been in the news. Maybe you’ve heard about it. Currently there are more than 400 billion euros committed to it.

I hope I mentioned the word “long-term” several times when I sent you the long-term dollar index chart last week with my best guest attached for a dollar rally. Mr. Greenie is getting smoked today.

I am a big believer in the idea MAJOR global macro events are catalysts that produce long-term trend changes in markets (granted the gift of hindsight helps us see this; but for the record I believed the dollar had put in the a bottom during the credit crunch, and said so then, and though confidence in that call has waxed and waned