Jack the Pipper

New Zealand and Aussie sharply higher this morning; as NZ central bank held on rates and Australian employment numbers not bad. Daily these guys are quite oversold…so this move may have some legs.

Though we can all guess and analyze and research and talk our positions, we never know when a trend, in any time frame, is over without the gift of hindsight. Many will tell us they have such a gift, but Mr. Market doesn’t work that way.

Here’s our simple model, not original, which represents our view markets represent mini- and major-boom bust cycles driven by various rationales of real players which are consistently flawed.

A clear three-wave rally from the 1.4948 low may be complete at 1.5352. If so, this sets the stage for another wave lower targeting the key weekly swing low (from 7/13/13) at 1.4816. Alternatively, a break of the 1.5352 high sets up a move to the 1.5500-level.

Just in case you’ve been stranded in outer space for the last several weeks, you probably didn’t realize the price of oil has been heading south.

I have to confess, I have been a long-time doomer and gloomer on the euro. And the last time I was as gloomy as those are in the market now, was just before the currency blasted off for a 25 cent rally against the dollar back in June 2012.

Volatility is often a precursor to a change in trend (in all time frames). We know dollar sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish – it seems a one-way bet right now. But Mr. Market is watching because he loves one-way bets.

A carpenter is unprepared without his tool belt, a Navy Seal without his combat gear, Barack Obama his teleprompters.

The dollar is stronger against the pack this morning…US stocks flat, bonds flat, oil flat, gold off a bit…Nikkei stronger overnight and USD/JPY rallied in tune again…

Good news: We’ve extended your free “Insider’s Look” at Black Swan Forex (BSFX) through Friday.