Trade Idea: 2010-07-01 23:11
I was already up 150 pips on my trade. I thought I was going to go off into the weekend with my trade comfortably ahead. I thought this was going to be my TRADE OF THE YEAR!
Ah, well, I was wrong.
Cable rose yesterday, as the dollar was sold off like Katy Perry’s number 1 single California Girls. I’m flabbergasted, astonished, amazed, confuzzled… whatever long highfalutin adjective you can think of, that’s what I am feeling right now!
At the very least, I’m happy that I was able to avoid a loss on this trade. The pair is now touching top of the channel at 1.5200… I don’t know whether I should short again. Those green candles are just too bullish in my opinion!
Total: 0 pips/ 0% gain
In any case, this didn’t turn out to be my TRADE OF THE YEAR… But that doesn’t mean I can’t have any more ideas, right? So, I leave you with that my lovely readers…. Stay tuned for the next edition of Huck’s TRADE OF THE YEAR!
Trade Update: 2010-06-30 23:04
That was close! After being down almost 100 pips on my GBPUSD trade, the pair has finally reversed and now I’m up! Time to play it safe and my stop to breakeven!
I was a lil bummed to see how other majors were falling but the pound just kept rising! I couldn’t figure it out! The pair rose all the way to 1.5130 and I thought I was going to get stopped out again!
Well, thanks to some comments made some dude over at the BOE, I got the nice push that I needed for GBPUSD to fall. Apparently, not everything is Bella and Edward (my new term for “rosy and beautiful”) in the UK. This finally led to some pound selling. Combining this with overall market sentiment, what do we get?
Huck’s up 100+ pips now! Woohoo!
The one thing that I’m thinking about right now is whether I should add to my position or not. I think we could see more poor data from the NFP report, which could mean another round of risk aversion. Hmmm… decisions, decisions. What’s a girl to do?? It’s just like choosing between Jacob and Edward. It’s impossible!
Trade Idea: 2010-06-23 23:42
Third time’s a charm?!? In my last two cable trades, I didn’t get triggered on the first, stopped at breakeven on the second. This time, I’m confident that I’ve got a winner on my hands. I repeat, this will be my trade of the year!
I’ve popped up the Fibonacci tool and it looks like price is approaching the 61.8% level. I’ve done some multiple time frame analysis, and it looks like the pair overbought on all the time frames. It’s about time for sellers to come in and bring price back down! Not only that, but I think I’ve spotted some bearish divergence forming, with price showing lower highs and stochastics showing higher highs.
I’ve put my order in at 1.5030, just below the Fib level. My stop is at 1.5200, as I want to give this trade some room to breathe. This would be equal to 170 pips, which is roughly equal to the pair’s daily average true range. I’ve set my first take profit point at 1.4800, which seems have been an area of interest in the past. For my second position, I’ll put a trailing stop once my first profit target is hit.
I’m still fundamentally bearish on the pound because their government’s proposed austerity measures could leave a huge dent on their economy. Even though Chancellor Osborne insisted that their economy could still post a 1.2% GDP growth amidst the spending cuts and tax hikes, I have a nasty hunch that those belt-tightening measures would hurt spending and production. In fact, I’m having a tough time figuring out why the pound staged a strong rally recently. But, as Pip Diddy pointed out in today’s roundup, that surge was most likely spurred by policymaker Andrew Sentence’s vote to hike rates.
The coast is clear for the UK today and tomorrow in terms of economic releases. No red flags out there! The only report due today is the Bank of England’s Financial Stability report, which could highlight the weaknesses in the UK’s finances and help my trade.
Once again, here are the details for my TRADE OF THE YEAR (hopefully):
Short GBPUSD at 1.5030, stop at 1.5200, take profit at 1.4800
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