The euro is likely to rock’n’roll this week with a top, top tier event ahead. Here are both long and short setups to tickle your fancy, and a non-euro setup that looks straight out of a textbook.
The euro is set to make moves this week thanks to a fresh round of PMI updates coming soon, as well as the latest monetary policy statement from the European Central Bank. So, do your homework on those upcoming events and if you find yourself falling into the bearish camp on the euro, then this range on EUR/CAD may be just for you.
On the one hour chart above, we can see traders have kept this market in a range through much of July, bouncing back and forth somewhere between the 1.4625 handle up to the 1.4725ish area. The pair recently saw a strong bounce higher, enough so that we’re seeing the top of the range again with the market hanging above 1.4700 at the moment. With the stochastic signaling overbought conditions, euro bears have an opportunity to short some euros against a higher-yielding currency at a better price than on Friday.
If you did your euro homework and find yourself in the bull camp, then you may want to check out the four hour chart on EUR/JPY. This market has also been in a range like EUR/CAD above, but on a much longer timeframe that goes back two months. And unlike EUR/CAD, instead of testing highs, EUR/JPY has been grinding along the bottom of the channel over the past week.
We’re also seeing a bullish divergence signal highlighted in the blue above as price action continues to see lower ‘lows’ while stochastic clocked in a few higher ‘lows.’ So, a bullish play is something to consider at these levels as the potential return-on-risk is high if targeting the top of the range and using a daily ATR (around 50 pips) as your stop.
If you want to avoid the potential euro drama this week, NZD/CAD is definitely watchlist worthy as it looks like a perfectly picked trend that you would see in a forex lesson. On the one hour chart above, it’s been a steady grind higher for NZD/CAD bulls, and the volatility is not likely to stop there with the Kiwi dollar getting love from the rebound in global risk sentiment.
It’ll likely pay off better to wait for a pullback as the stochastic is signaling potentially overbought conditions, so traders should watch out for a retest of the rising lows, in combination with an oversold stochastic indicator signal before playing the uptrend higher in the NZD/CAD.