Big week for the Aussie and Loonie, so we’ve got a mix of chart patterns to watch including a channel, a double top and an upside range breakout on the crosses.
This week could be big shift for the Canadian dollar with the latest monetary policy decision coming from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. This is about as top tier an event as you can get for a currency and if there is a surprise from move from the BOC, expect big moves from the Loonie as well.
So, looking at the longer-term time frame, we’ve got a solid pattern on NZD/CAD that could be ready for a big move ahead. Recently, we saw a double top form around the major resistance area around .9200, and now the market is back to testing a major support area that formed in between the tops around the .8900 handle. A break here with a strong fundamental driver could take this pair lower without much speed bumps in the way, and it’s likely traders will target the 2018 lows around .8350 for a very attractive potential reward-to-risk play.
The Aussie also has a top tier event just ahead, the quarterly consumer inflation update. This is likely to be a market mover as inflation data plays a big consideration in monetary policy.
The area to watch is the 79.50 handle, which has been a strong area of interest this year as it held off the bulls in February and March. April is a different story as the market busted higher to the 80.50 area before falling back in the last week. The question now is “will it retest the the broken resistance area around 79.50?” and “well buyers step into play the breakout for a long position?” We’ll just have to throw the pair onto the watchlist and wait-and-see, but odds are looking pretty good that the pullback could be shallow given the stochastic is already signalling oversold conditions.
Given the events coming up, the AUD/CAD is likely the pair to see the most volatility this week, making the rising channel pattern on the four hour time frame our top priority for the watchlist.
The pair has been grinding higher since the end of February where it started around the .9300 area before finding recent resistance around the .9600 area, forming a channel along the way. The pair has since fallen in the last few sessions, making a retest of the channel bottom one to watch for buyers to potentially jump back in. Support could possibly be coming soon as the stochastic indicator is signaling short-term oversold conditions, so look out for reversal buy patterns between .9475 – .9525 if the fundamental story supports a return to the uptrend (dovish BOC and/or positive Aussie inflation surprise).
Of course, with these top tier events on the way, we can’t rule out a downside channel breakout, so we’ve got to stay on our toes until both events pass.