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The downtrend on the 30 and 60-minute swissy (I prefer the clarity of the 60-minute market trend) is still intact and as we all watch this pair sink below parity, I think many of us are thinking we’d like to short a bounce. But a bounce to where?

On the 60-minute chart my 34EMA Wave shows that the zone in which I would like to short a bounce is waiting between 1.0004 and 1.0030. This is a wide range however the major psychological level could have selling pressure parked between 0.9995 and 1.0005 so it’s an important area to watch. If buyers can rally higher through 1.0000 then that opens the door to the 1.0020 (minor psychological level) and 1.0030. In fact I would not be opposed to shorting from 1.0050 which is not only a major psychological level but also where today’s exhaustion began the sharp decline…there will be near-term selling pressure waiting there again unless there is a a shift in the fundamental sentiment. (e.g. SNB, sudden U.S. Dollar strength)

9-14-2010 CHF 30.png

Chart courtesy of Autochartist.

I will maintain this short-term intraday bearish sentiment as long as the momentum remains bearish and organized enough to maintain the downtrend. If prices begin to find buying support above 1.0030 and especially 1.0050, I will re-think my strategy…as that would be my “point of validity” (the point at which I think an trade is no longer valid) for the short entry.

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This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.