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Trade Closed: 2010-08-30 22:43

PoD Chart

Frustration, frustration, frustration! After a decent USDCHF win, I follow it up with a mismanaged USDJPY trade. Although price did go my way initially, I did not adjust nor take profits…

In retrospect, I think I may have been too hopeful AND confident on the yen’s strength. While the yen has been gaining against most major currencies, it still needs to retrace. I did not consider this, which made me vulnerable to keeping my positions open waaaay too long. It seems like “set and forget” strategy “set and forget” strategies do not work very well in a choppy, non-trending market environment… Oh well…

Stopped out at 85.20 for -1.00%

Hmm, what do you think I should’ve done with this position when I was already winning? I need some guidance.

Trade Idea: 2010-08-25 2:38

PoD Chart

It’s time to go all bearish on the dollar! I believe that the less-than-stellar existing house sales report from the US yesterday was only the beginning of the dollar’s troubles against the yen this week. I expect the US data to continue to disappoint, especially when expectations are low for this Friday’s quarterly GDP report.

I also think that it’s safe to buy the yen because there was no mention of a currency intervention, or any solid plan for that matter after the meeting between Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan and BOJ Governor Shirakawa. In fact, some are even saying that the BOJ will wait until the end of the summer before they do something about the rapid appreciation of the yen.

On the technical side, we can see that USDJPY has been on a downtrend. The pair also broke out of a major support level at 85.00, hinting at further weakness.

Through the use of the Fibonacci tool, I tried to find a suitable entry. Lo and behold, price is finding some resistance at the 38.2% Fib level. Time to short? I think so! But since I know I’m no expert in catching tops and bottoms, I’ll put another short order at the 50% Fib just in case.

My stop for both positions will be at 85.20, roughly equal to the pair’s average true range and above the 61.8% Fib. Both positions will target former lows at 83.80.

Short USDJPY at market (84.40), and another one at 84.70, pt at 83.80, sl at 85.20.

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