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Good morning! Looks like a great start to my week as my short position in USD/CAD reached full profitability this morning after a few tests of 1.2500 last week.

Second profit target hit at 1.2250.

1st Half: +100 pips
2nd Half: +200 pips
Total: +1.5% gain

So, I think I’m done for the week already…Just kidding! It should be an interesting week as we have the FOMC meeting again this week deciding on the fate of short-term interest rates here in the US.

Also, the lack of any action in the US automaker bailout, coupled with more bad US economic data, may pose a hindrance on any short-term US Dollar rallies as well. Commodity prices are still at the mercy of US Dollar price action and global demand, so look for continued a bit more volatility in the “Comdolls” this week. Stay tuned!

Trade Idea: 2008-12-11 17:33


Greetings! Looks like we have a new short-term downtrend forming on USD/CAD. Has the US Dollar rally finally run out of steam? Let’s take a look…

The Loonie has been on a tear since hitting a triple top on the Daily charts, rallying from 1.30 to its current levels between 1.23 – 1.24. Today’s trade balance data from both the US and Canada didn’t help the Greenback out either as the US trade deficit grew and Canada posts another surplus.

I have a one-hour chart up and we can clearly see a downtrend. I’d like to play this downtrend, but I am going to wait and see if I can get in at a slightly better price. I like the 50% Fibonacci area as it is just below psychologically significant level of 1.2500.

Here’s what I’d like to do:

Short USD/CAD at 1.2450, stop at 1.2550, pt1 at 1.2350, pt2 at 1.2250

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned!

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