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Trade Idea 2010-04-22 23:03

Aww, what a bummer! My short EURUSD trade didn’t get triggered yesterday as the price pulled back until the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level only. Well, I did notice that there was some minor resistance around that area but I decided to be more conservative and place my order at the trend line. I can’t believe I missed my entry by 20 pips!

In any case, I’m still on the lookout for possible ways to short the EURUSD. Something tells me parity isn’t really an impossibility….

Trade Idea 2010-04-21 23:39

PoD Chart

I popped open the EURUSD 1-hour chart and noticed that the pair has been moving within a descending channel since last week. The pair has made a steady dive the past couple of days but it seems ready to retrace now. I’m looking to short the pair once it hits the top of the channel, right around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Coincidentally, this level is nearly in line with yesterday’s high and this week’s open price at 1.3470. I’ve placed my profit target near yesterday’s low of 1.3358. I set my stop at the psychological 1.3500 handle, which is beyond the top of the channel.

I’ll hold on to this trade until Friday’s US session only. Notice how the pair has been making huge price gaps over the weekend? Well, I don’t want my trade to get messed up because of that!

Now my main reason for shorting the EURUSD is the amount of debt problems that’s coming out of euro zone. Some are saying that all of the bad news has already been priced in, but I think otherwise. I mean, just yesterday, the euro took another beating on Greek debt concerns again. For the coming weeks, all I see for the euro is further losses, possibly towards 1.3000.

The data coming out of the euro zone, namely the French and German purchasing mangers’ index, could provide the volatility my trade needs to get triggered. Meanwhile, I’m going to be counting on data from the US like the producer price index, the weekly unemployment claims and the existing home sales, would provide the direction. If the US reports come in worse-than-expected, it could trigger a round of risk aversion and push the EURUSD even lower.

Again, here’s what I plan to do:

Short EURUSD at 1.3440, pt at 1.3360, stop loss at 1.3500.

By the way, did you guys watch the latest episode of Glee yet? They totally rocked the Madonna theme! I must admit though that it was a bit disturbing to see Sue Sylvester in that “Vogue” music video. Don’t get me wrong, I love Sue… But I’d rather see her wearing a tracksuit and being on the warpath as always. Can’t wait for the next Glee episode next week!

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