Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD– After falling below 3400, the Euro once again is testing the limit as it surged back above 3400 and got as high as 3450 today. The Euro had lost to the Dollar for the past 2 days prior to today’s rally but has made up its lost ground. The next thing to watch is whether or not the Euro can sustain this momentum and continue to move higher or if the 3400 resistance level will hold strong once again.
Result: After 2 days of falling to the Dollar, the Euro surged back above 3400 and is once again testing that resistance level.
GBP/USD- Like its Euro counterpart, the Cable also surged today, erasing the 3 days of gains the Dollar had made previously. The pair bounced off of 9600 and rallied to as high as 9750 before settling back down just above 9700.
Result: The Sterling rallied higher against the Dollar and completely erased the days gain the Dollar had previously made against the Sterling.
USD/CHF- The 100 SMA proved to be a sturdy resistance level as the Swissy was able to push the Dollar down to as low as 2150. Like the Euro and Sterling, the Swissy completely erased the gains the Dollar had made the previous 2 days.
Result: The Swissy pushed the Dollar down below 2100 today after 2 days of falling to the Greenback.
USD/JPY- For a brief moment today the Dollar like it was about to lose its foothold against the Yen as it dropped below 119.00 and fell to as low as 118.75. However, the Dollar was able to get some footing and was able to rally back above 119.00 and is currently trading just above it at 119.11. The pair has been "resting" ever since it broke 119.00 last week. It still looks as if the market is deciding what to do with the pair.
Result: The pair once again stayed flat with the Yen making a slight advance against the Dollar.
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
Well the Euro retraced slightly higher than I expected as it was able to reach 3450. 4hr stochastics are right at overbought territory but have not really crossed down yet. Daily stochastics are still trending down which keeps me bearish for the medium term. I think the Euro will probably float a tad higher (possibly to around 3475), but we should see it fall from there.
The Sterling also rallied higher than I expected….much higher! The pair not only rallied to 9650, but it went 100 pips higher and got as high as 9750! 4hr stochastics are heading into overbought territory but haven’t crossed down yet which means we could see some more bullish movement in the short term. Daily stochastics are trending down which indicates that the pair could find resistance at 9800 again and become bearish in the medium term.
The Swissy ended up falling like I thought it would and it fell quite nicely. 4hr stochastics are now in oversold territory and daily stochastics are trending up which indicates that we should be seeing some bullish movement in the near and medium term. However, currently the price is trading at 2177. If the price can break 2150 then I think we could see the pair fall to 2100. I say this because the pair had been ranging from 2100-2200 for quite some time before it rallied above 2200 so if this downward momentum continues, then I think we’ll see it fall back down to 2100.
The USD/JPY has been floating above 119.00 ever since it broke that level last week. The pair seems to be at a standstill at the moment. 4hr stochastics are trending down and daily stochastics are in overbought territory which to me, indicates that we should see the pair fall in the short and medium term. If the pair can break 119.00 then look for it to head down to its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart which is currently at 118.67. .