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Ok, so I’ve been completely wrong about the Euro rally being over because the Euro just soared higher today. The EUR/USD hit 3900 today and I’d like to say the technicals indicate the pair will drop, but that sure doesn’t seem to be the case. However, the Euro hasn’t been this high since 1995 so we are at some very extreme levels at the moment. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are in overbought territory but both are still trending up which may indicate a little more waiting time before we see the pair drop. I’m still sticking with my bearish bias and I’m expecting the pair to drop very soon. One other thing to remember is that the Euro has made gains for the past 7 straight trading sessions! The pair is bound to drop one of these days, even if it’s just for a day or two for people to take some profits.


Well the Cable did end up rising to 2.0350 and then dropped back to 2.0300 like I said yesterday and now the pair is once again at a standstill. 4hr stochastics are trending down and daily stochastics are in overbought territory. I’m still bearish on the pair and I’m expecting it to drop to around 2.0250 sometime tomorrow.


Well the Swissy only got up to 1900 before it fell again and now its trading at around 1850 after it briefly traded down at around the 1820 level. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are nearing oversold territory and coincidentally enough, the pair is also nearing the 1800 support area. It looks like we’ll see the Swissy continue to drop down to 1800, after which we should see a bounce back up to around 1850-1900.


The Yen stayed pretty quiet today as it hovered around the 114.00 mark. At this point, stochastics aren’t really giving us any good indications but we do still have that bearish hidden divergence showing on the 4hr chart. My best guess is that the pair will rise up to around its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart and then continue to fall back down to around 114.00.

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • Alan Greenspan he’s got a case of dejavu as he stated that the current US economy reminds him of the time right before the stock market crash in 1998…Hmmm…that’s not good! Al quotes:
    • "The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987." He then went further to say this…. "the expansion phase of the economy is quite different, and fear as a driver, which is going on today, is far more potent than euphoria."
  • Rate cut for the US in September? Chuck Butler seems to think so in his Daily Pfennig from Monday.
    • "The Fed Heads have really backed themselves into an ugly corner… And they had better come out of it with both guns "a blazin’" on Sept. 18th when they meet next. By this I mean the rate cut had better be something of significance… Say… 50 BPS!"
  • Regarding the trade balance:
    • "So far this year, the U.S. trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $711 billion, down from $758.5 billion in 2006. Last’s year trade deficit marked the fifth year in a row where the trade deficit hit an all-time high.
      Economists believe the trade balance will finally shrink this year as U.S. exporters benefit from strong economic growth in many countries overseas and a weaker dollar against many currencies. That makes U.S. products cheaper on foreign markets and imports more expensive for American consumers."