Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD– The Euro fell early and dropped below 3600, falling to its 4hr 100 SMA at around 3560. From that point on, the Euro rallied back up to 3600 where it has setttled at. Today is the 2nd straight day the Euro has dropped after hitting the 3650 level.
Result: The Euro dropped for the 2nd straight day against the Dollar after hitting the 3650 level.
GBP/USD– After hanging around the 2.0000 resistance level for several days, the Sterling finally dropped and fell to 1.9900 today. The pair had been facing strong resistance at 2.0000 but continued to hang around that level. Today is the first real good bounce off of that resistance level.
Result: The Sterling fell hard against the Dollar and dropped to 1.9900.
USD/CHF– The Dollar rallied early on in the day as it moved up to as high as 2188. From then on, the Swissy rallied strong and pushed the Dollar back down to 2136 and ended up closing slightly lower than its open.
Result: Although the Dollar ralllied strong early on, the Swissy managed to push it back down to where it opened.
USD/JPY– The Dollar once again rallied higher and actually broke the 120.00 mark. The pair did fall to 119.50 for a little while but rallied up strong and is now trading above 120.00.
Result: The USD/JPY pretty rallied higher and actually broke 120.00 after hanging around 119.50 for a few days.
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
The Euro broke the 3600 level but found support at its 4hr 100 SMA and bounced back up to 3600. 4hr stochastics are trending up while daily stochastics are trending down. I still have a bearish bias on this pair as it has tried to break 3650 several times and has failed each time. If the Euro can break the 100 SMA support on the 4hr chart, look for the pair to continue to fall to 3500.
The Cable did end up falling to 9900 like I thought it would and it looks as though the pair may continue to fall. However, 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory so we may see some retracement in the short term. Daily stochastics are still trending down and aren’t in oversold territory yet. Look for the Cable to maybe float back up to around 9930 or so but we should see the Cable drop to around 9850.
The Swissy rose up to the 50 EMA on the daily chart but was unable to hit 2200. 4hr stochastics are trending down which means we could see the pair fall back towards 2100. However daily stochastics are still trending up and aren’t in overbought territory yet. I think after the pair falls slightly, we should see it rise back up towards the 50 EMA on the daily chart.
The Yen has now broken over 120.00 and both the 4hr and daily stochastics are in overbought territory. I think we may see the pair drift slightly higher but right now I am bearish on the pair and could see it fall back down to 119.50.