Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD– After a nice strong rally yesterday, the Euro pretty much stayed flat as it hovered around the 3700 mark today. Early on the pair broke over the 3700 level and peaked at 3726 but then slid back down to below 3700 and is currently hovering around 3682. The pair has been gradually moving down although the move has not been smooth.
Result: The Euro was at a standstill today with the Dollar as the pair stayed right around the 3700 mark.
GBP/USD- Following last week’s 250 pip drop, the Cable has started to climb its way back up. The pair made a nice 100 pip rally today moving from 2.0250 to just under 2.0350.
Result: The Sterling rallied 100 pips today and marked its second day of retracing upwards after taking 3 big drops last week and falling over 400 pips.
USD/CHF- One word best describes this pair at the moment….choppppppy! The pair has found support at 2000 and has tried to bounce back up, but everytime it moves up it seems to gravitate back towards the 2000 mark. The pair is now at 2020 and seems to be approaching 2000 once again. Will the support hold again or will we finally see the bulls push the pair back up?
Result: The Swissy stayed flat today as it simply hovered around 2050 before falling to around 2020 mark.
USD/JPY- The Dollar took a small loss against the Yen today but today’s price action wasn’t too impressive either way. Early on, the Dollar pushed the Yen up to as high as 119.50 before the Yen fought back and finally pushed it down below the 119.00 level to around 118.80.
Result: The USD/JPY stayed flat as the market remained undecided, keeping the pair at just under 119.00
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
I still don’t think the Euro is quite done moving down. The pair made a strong move up yesterday and stayed flat today but stochastics on both the 4hr and daily chart suggest that the pair may continue to move back down. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory and are trending down while daily stochastics are trending down and are not quite in oversold territory yet. Look for the Euro to drop somewhere around the 3650 mark tomorrow.
Ok so I know you’re thinking the Sterling may be headed back up now after today’s 100 pip rally. But you’ve got to remember that the Cable fell over 400 pips last week! And it didn’t just crawl down, it dropped like a rock! A retracement of 100 pips isn’t really that much if you put it in that perspective. In fact, if we put up a Fibonacci on the daily chart, you’ll see that the pair has just hit resistance at the 38% Fib level. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory and daily stochastics are still trending down and aren’t in oversold territory yet. Look for the pair to fall back to 2.0300 or even 2.0250.
The Swissy has been hard to analyze lately as it has been super choppy. I’ve been staying away from the pair but now it looks interesting again as the pair is heading right back down to the 2000 support area. Both 4hr and daily stochastics have crossed down although they are moving horizontally. If the pair can break below 2000 I would look for it to fall all the way down to around 1900 because the harder it is to break a support level, the harder it falls (usually).
The Dollar has found support at 118.00 and has since moved back up to around the 119.00 mark. 4hr stochastics are trending down while daily stochastics are in oversold territory. Currently the pair is trading at around 118.85 and I would watch for it to fall to around 118.50 before it makes its move back up.