Here is a technical summary of what happened today in the majors:
EUR/USD– The Euro made another push towards its most recent swing high at 3258 and got as high as 3220 today. However, the 3200 proved to be too much resistance as the price could never close above it on the 4hr chart. The Euro ended up forming a spinning top on the daily chart which could indicate some indecision in this currency pair.
Result: The Euro made a slight gain against the Dollar but is pretty much at a standstill at this point.
GBP/USD- It was a very quiet day for the Cable as the pair only had an 83 pip range today. The Sterling briefly rallied to 9350 before the Dollar brought it back down and ended up winning the overall battle. The pair closed at 9287 compared to yesterday’s close at 9324.
Result: We’re still seeing range trading in this pair and the future direction is still a toss up.
USD/CHF- The Dollar lost for a 2nd straight day against the Swissy and formed a new 3 day low at 2166. The pair got as high as 2260 but from there, the Swissy took control and continued to push the Dollar lower the entire day. The pair ended up closing at 2175 compared to yesterday’s close at 2241.
Result: The Dollar suffered its 2nd straight defeat and is back to where it started when it first started its rally against the Swissy last Thursday.
USD/JPY- The Yen once again took control and pushed the Dollar to a 3 day low at 116.19. It was really a one sided battle as the Yen began pushing the Dollar lower from the beginning of the day. The pair closed 136 pips lower than yesterday at 116.26
Result: The Dollar once again took a major beating from the Yen.
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
The Euro once again met resistance at 3200 but stochastics are indicating that we could see the pair make another push to 3250. Both the 4hr and daily stochastics are trending up. However 4hr stochastics are near the overbought territory which could limit the movement for the Euro rally. My trade yesterday did not trigger (unfortunately) and I will be cancelling out that order now. Look for the Euro to make another run to 3250 tomorrow.
I still don’t really know where the Cable is headed but it looks as though both 4hr and stochastics are trending down (barely). There aren’t any major support areas close by but both 4hr and daily stochastics are already hanging around the oversold area. My guess is we’ll see a move to somewhere in between 9200-9250.
Well the Swissy dropped nicely and my trade from yesterday currently has a nice profit. Hmmm…what to do? Daily stochastics are trending down but 4hr stochastics are already in oversold territory which means we could see a retracement from here. I think the pair can still make it to 2150 but it might take a while. Since this is the case I’m going to go ahead and lock in some profit and move my stop to 2210 (above the 2200 resistance). Hopefully the pair has enough juice left to take it to our target. Either way we’ve already won on the trade so it’s no big deal. If you missed my post yesterday, this was my trade idea:
Buy USD/CHF at 2260; Stop Loss= 2360; Target= 2150
*Adjustment- Move stop to 2210 (lock in 50 pips)
Well I was totally wrong about the 200 SMA being able to hold its support and the Yen just dropped like a rock. 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory but have not crossed up yet which means we could see a little more movement to the downside. Daily stochastics have crossed back down after the big drop today and if it continues to trend down into oversold territory then we could see the pair fall all the way back down to 115.00 (big psychological support). If the pair can break 116.00 then I think there is a good chance we’ll see the pair make another run at 115.00. 116.00 will be the key level to watch!