Q4 is done! With trading and some holiday rest outta the way, it’s time for a quick review to see where I can improve for the upcoming new year. Check it!
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Oct 10||Rising Triangle Break on EUR/NZD?||+270||+0.39|
|Oct 20||Rising Lows Break-n-Rest on AUD/JPY?||-102||-0.27|
|Nov 14||Head & Shoulders Break on EUR/USD?||-150||-0.44|
|Dec 7||USD/CHF Upside Breakout||No Trade||0.00|
|Dec 12||Entry Adjustment: AUD/NZD Short||+151||+0.38|
|Dec 12||GBP/AUD Upside Breakout||+35||+0.05|
|Dec 14||Rising Trend in EUR/CAD||No Trade||0.00|
Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q4: 7
Breakeven/No Trade: 2
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 60.00%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.27%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.36%
Largest Drawdown: -0.71%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q4 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.11% on 2.50% risk taken
Looking back, the final quarter of 2017 was an exercise of trying to juggle the ever-shifting market sentiment, which usually rotated in focus between the global economic recovery and positive sentiment, seesawing sentiment on U.S. fiscal reform and political drama, and shifts in outlook on future monetary policy moves from the major central banks like the Fed and how it may affect all of us little people.
And after reviewing my trade journal, I think I did a pretty good job going with the trends and driving themes in all of my ideas. Of course, being right in direction is only half the battle, with the other half managing the trades during the shifting themes and surprises that the market throws at us in the short-term. And in that regard, I think I did just “okay.”
Starting with the good, I’ll look at my entry strategies and it looks like I only missed out on one move, my EUR/CAD long ideas. The 1.5000 I pointed out as my entry level was solid as a buy area, and the pair did manage to get up to 1.5300 after retesting that handle…too bad I closed my orders and never participated as I closed up shop ahead of the holidays.
In terms of avoiding losses, closing my USD/CHF orders and GBP/AUD long position were both good moves as the market shifted against me with broad USD weakness hitting us ahead of the holidays after tax reform and broad AUD strength on a recent rise in iron ore and gold prices. I avoided taking a loss on USD/CHF and managed to squeeze out a tiny gain on GBP/AUD.
Now the bad, and it’s the usual story of closing trades out way before I probably should’ve. This is the case on:
- EUR/NZD long trade (closed for profit at 1.6670, but hit a Dec. high around 1.7475)
- AUD/JPY short (closed for a loss at 88.98, hit 84.40 end of Nov.)
- EUR/USD long (closed for a loss at 1.1800, hitting 1.2000 as I write this)
The AUD/JPY and EUR/USD trades would have been nice winners, and that EUR/NZD long would have been a big winner if I stuck to my guns and waited the short-term noise out. The profit picture would look much different had I done so.
Overall, it’s the same old story of being right on direction, but mismanaging the position because of the shifting themes. I don’t know if market timing will ever get easier (it likely never will for me at least), but I think I can close out 2017 knowing that I think I can lock down direction more times than not, which again, is a huge part. Now, if I can keep that up and stay a little more patient with my ideas, I’ll be just fine.
And with that said, going forward with FX volatility creeping lower and lower, I’m likely going to stick with more watchlist posts and only put out medium to longer-term swing ideas until volatility does pick up. Hopefully it does because 2017 was a bit of a snoozer, but given cryptocurrencies’ meteoric rise this year, who can blame any of us for taking our eyes off of bitcoin and where it’s going next. Am I right?
What do you think of my review and how did you do in Q4 2017? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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