Talk about finishing strong! The pairs I’m watching snagged a couple of wins before closing Q3, just in time for me to round up the quarterly performance numbers.
In this revised version of the Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy, I’m waiting for RSI to cross above or below oversold or overbought levels to indicate a bit more momentum in the direction of the trade. Make sure you review the tweaks here.
First up, here’s the latest signal on USD/CAD:
A short signal popped up on the test of the upper band, and price made it to the middle band then eventually the opposite one.
Now here’s the signal on CAD/CHF:
Just as the other pair, this one hit the middle band and eventually the opposite Bollinger band to score full wins.
With that, the mech system chalked up 107 pips or 2.14% in gains for the past week. Woot woot!
And I know I haven’t really covered the position sizing rules for this system just yet but, for simplicity’s sake, I decided to assume 1% risk per trade in order to help me analyze total performance.
Not such an impressive run, huh? The pair caught 14 valid signals for the period but wound up with a 9-pip or 0.18% loss during the quarter, even with a relatively good win rate.
It was actually off to a good start with nearly 2% in gains on the first trade for Q3 but the larger average loss vs. average gain eventually chipped off the wins.
Now this one fared much better with a 3.03% overall win on 18 positions despite a lower win rate compared to USD/CAD. The larger average win vs. average loss was the positive factor, and the maximum winning streak of five trades at 3.33% in gains kept CAD/CHF in the black.
How do you think this strategy stacked up against my other mechanical systems in Q3?