It’s the last stretch of 2018, you guys! Time does fly when you’re catching pips, huh? Or have I been losing ’em? Find out my quarterly review!
As with the previous quarters, I tried to stick to longer-term plays, so I only a few ideas posted in Q3. Let’s take a look, shall we?
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|From Q2||NZD/CHF Range Support Breakdown||+140||+0.46|
|July 12||EUR/JPY Descending Channel Breakout||Not taken||Not taken|
|July 19||Bearish Confirmation on EUR/AUD?||-250||-0.45|
|From Q2||GBP/JPY Daily Head and Shoulders||+250||+0.22|
|July 26||EUR/GBP Resistance Turned Support||Missed entry||Missed entry|
|Aug. 30||GBP/CAD Double Bottom Formation||Not taken||Not taken|
No. of Trades Taken: 3
No. of Wins: 2
No. of Losses: 1
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 66%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.34
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.45%
Total P/L: +0.23%
On the positive side of things, I managed to close out the quarter in the black with a meager 0.23% gain and a pretty decent win rate of 66%. I’d say that’s better than my Q2 performance, but I know I have tons to work on.I had a couple of swing positions left open from the previous quarter, though, and these were actually the ones that caught pips in Q3. My freshly opened position for the period turned out to be a loss.
Here’s a quick rundown, starting from the positions carried over:
NZD/CHF Range Support Breakdown: I wasn’t too happy about racking up negative carry on this short Kiwi position that lasted more than a couple of months, and I’m not sure what to feel about how I managed this position.
I held on tight after the long-term break and my adjusted stop got hit on a pullback, although the pair did eventually tumble all the way down to my original PT. Man!
GBP/JPY Daily Head and Shoulders: This one’s a tale of a bad trade gone (slightly) better as I fought to make the best of a terrible entry and still tried to make some gains. But because of a wide stop, I wasn’t able to score a good R:R on this one.
Bearish Confirmation on EUR/AUD: I’m a bit disappointed with myself on how I handled this one as I was late in adjusting my stop and I seemed to freeze when cutting losses. I probably could’ve sneaked in a few pips or at least ended at breakeven had I been quicker with my fingers instead of hanging on to wishful thinking while price was already reversing!
EUR/JPY Descending Channel Breakout: This one I’m happy about staying out as the ECB kept trying to downplay its hawkish tilt throughout the next couple of months. Price didn’t gain much bullish traction after its short-term channel break either, so I probably would’ve gotten stopped out had I jumped in a long position anyway. Phew!
And now for the ones that got away:
EUR/GBP Resistance Turned Support: I planned on hopping in a long position on a test of the .8800 channel support area, but price didn’t dip low enough before resuming its rally.
This would’ve made it all the way to my target at the channel resistance and beyond, especially as Brexit troubles resurfaced around that time.
GBP/CAD Double Bottom Formation: There were more than a couple of opportunities for me to hop in this long position, but I honestly chickened out. I could’ve jumped in on a breakout… or the retest… or on another pullback! And price would’ve made it all the way to my target, too!
To sum up: Had I played that Guppy short better, held on to my NZD/CHF short, adjusted my stop quickly on EUR/AUD, and caught those moves on EUR/GBP and GBP/CAD, this quarter might’ve been one of my better ones. Bah!
But as I always try tell myself, hindsight is 20/20 and there’s no use crying over spilled pips. There may still have been a bit of self-doubt carried over from my downbeat performance in the earlier quarter, preventing me from taking on more risks that would’ve actually paid out.
Got any tips for me to finish strong this year?
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