It was quite a challenging quarter to say the least, but I did manage to land a few good punches in the past three months. Here’s my Q3 blog performance review.
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|July 18||NZD/CHF Double Bottom||-75||-0.21|
|Aug 1||Potential GBP/JPY Selloff||-90||-0.15|
|Aug 16||NZD/JPY Long-Term Ceiling||0||0|
|Sept 13||CAD/CHF Long-Term Triangle||Not triggered||Not triggered|
|Sept 19||GBP/AUD Long-Term Floor||+440||+0.53|
No. of Trades Taken: 5
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 2
Win %: 20%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.53%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.18%
Total P/L: +0.17%
Ha! Yet another positive quarter… I’ll take that!
I know I ain’t exactly makin’ it rain with a measly 0.17% win for the quarter, but that’s still an improvement over my previous 0.015% gain in Q2 2017 so I’m gonna chalk it up as a good one. TBH, I’m really just relieved that I was able to end in the black even with all the tossing and turning in price action back then!
Unlike the previous quarter, I was off to a rocky start with back-to-back losses on NZD/CHF and GBP/JPY. I had been gunning for swing positions on those pairs, knowing that trends usually take longer to gain traction around this time of the year but that fundamentals tend to win out.
But instead of being more patient in waiting for price action to unfold on these setups, I may have been too jumpy in reacting to every single update that turned out to be mere noise. Because of that, I hopped out of my positions the moment I thought a reversal might be due, preventing me from staying in the trades until they eventually hit my PT… That’s right, both NZD/CHF and Guppy hit my targets, albeit a tad longer than I expected, but still would’ve been 1:1 wins!
Next up, I tried to catch the bearish momentum off the long-term ceiling test on NZD/JPY, which I also got out of too early by trailing my stop too tight. I’m 50/50 on my assessment on how I managed this one since price action really could’ve gone either way with North Korea making its moves back then, but I do wish I also refrained from panicking with this one. Had I been less reactive to short-term noise, I might’ve rode the pair down halfway through the range and my ultimate PT, catching another potential 1:1 trade.
After that, I had my eye set on the CAD/CHF uptrend pullback as this pair appeared to be a solid match of strong and weak currencies. Around that time, the BOC hikes were the stuff of headlines so I figured I’d go with the flow. Unfortunately, I may have been too late in cashing in on this trend as price barely looked back and just kept climbing.
And saving the best for last, I snagged my “One Good Trade” for the quarter with my long GBP/AUD position. This one played out pretty well as price climbed nearly nonstop after bouncing off the long-term floor, and I didn’t leave any pips on the table since I set a reasonable profit target instead of being too greedy.
But while I’m feeling stoked about capping off the period with a solid gain that allowed me to erase those earlier losses, I can’t help but feel slightly disappointed with myself since I bailed on what could’ve also been big wins.
What bums me out a bit more is that I should’ve been more conscious of this trading mistake as I’ve already touched upon this in my Q2 2017 review. Bad Cyclopip!
On a more positive note, I seem to be getting the hang of swing positions with currency crosses since my fundamental analysis and trade entry levels were actually on point. I just have to do a better job of managing my open trades and being able to identify which updates are actual movers and which ones are just short-term noise.
The rest of the metrics are looking mixed as my win rate is considerably lower than the 62.5% I had in Q2 and 80% in Q1, but I gotta get some brownie points for my average winning trade vs. average losing trade, right?
Besides, looking back at the previous lessons I’ve learned suggests that I’ve made some progress in setting exit levels, which has been one of my weak points in the past. I’d also like to think that, even with my watchlist setups, my techs and fundies have been more in sync with actual price action.
Got any other tips for me to improve my trading performance for the last stretch of this year?
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