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Finally finished crunching the numbers for the SMA Crossover Pullback system! How did this mechanical system fare in the first three months of 2019?

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first. And now here are the numbers!

Q2 2019 SMA Crossover Pullback System Performance
Week P/L in Pips P/L in %
April 2 – 9 -17 -0.11
April 10 – 23 +60 +0.41
April 23 – 30
April 30 – May 7 -78 -0.52
May 7 – 14 +317 +2.07
May 14  – 21 +244 +1.63
May 21 – 28 -61 -0.40
May 29 – June 4 -52 -0.37
June 4 – 11 -56 -0.36
June 11 – 18 -92 -0.61
June 19 – 25 -245 -1.63
June 25 – July 2 -6 -0.04

This strategy was off to a shaky start as it had its fair share of wins and losses. Trend momentum started picking up in early May, yielding back-to-back big weekly wins of 317 and 244 pips.

However, things started to slow down in the weeks that followed as sideways price action led to more than a handful of early exits on new crossovers. This churned out SIX consecutive losing weeks, even including a pretty big 245-pip loss.

Ha! Just when I thought the last few weeks of June were enough to take this system down to negative territory, it was able to pull off a teensy win after all!

It was able to end up with a 14-pip gain overall but the percentage win was just at 0.016% or almost break even. I guess that’s still an improvement over the first quarter’s 2-pip loss or 1.07% dent on the account.

I can’t help but worry that this system might be poised for a weak run this year because the first half has been brutal. Looking at the track record in previous years, however, still gives me hope that it could pick up on stronger trends over the next six months. What do you guys think?