It’s July and y’all know what that means! It’s time for my mid-year review!
If you’ve been following me over the past quarter, you’d know that I struggled quite a bit. Here are some stats to help me explain what I mean:
- Total Number of Trades: 11
- Wins: 2
- Losses: 6
- Breakeven Trades: 2
- Cancelled Trades: 1
- Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 20%
- Average Winning Trade in %: .92%
- Average Losing Trade in %: .50%
- Largest Drawdown: 3.0%
- Total Realized Profit / Loss in %: -1.22%
Tough quarter for me, as I basically ended it on a six trade losing streak. This marked the second quarter in a row that I ended with a losing streak, which sucks because I actually did okay in April and recorded two nice wins.
Overall, I took a 1.22% dent on my account, which in hindsight, isn’t too bad considering that I had a drawdown of 3%. Things could have easily been a lot worse. Imagine if I was risking 1.0% on each of those trades! Worse, what if I risked 2.0%! I would have had a drawdown of 12% Yikes!
In any case, here’s a chart of my account balance for this past quarter:
Things could have been a lot worse if it weren’t for this nice winner to start the quarter:
As it turns out, I caught the bottom of a major yen cross move, as I bought at that major confluence zone that was emerging on EUR/JPY. Good thing I was brave enough to keep my position open ahead of BOJ Governor Kuroda’s first statement, where he announced that the central bank would basically be doubling its monthly asset purchases! This sent yen pairs soaring up the charts, and I was able to bag a nice 255.5-pip win, which translated to a 1.60% gain on my account!
What was great about the trade was that I was able to gauge market sentiment and recognize that I could take better advantage of the volatility by letting part of my position run. I still need practice doing this but I hope in time, this will become another skill that I’ll have in my trading tool box.
They say that the first cut is the deepest, and this was definitely true in my case. My first loss for the quarter was this long-term Fibonacci play on EUR/AUD.
I had actually planned on holding this trade for weeks, since it was based on the pair’s long-term chart, but the market had other things in mind. The euro proved to be much more resilient than I had anticipated and it only took days for it to stop me out and bust through a major resistance area.
While it only dealt my account a 0.50% blow (thanks to proper position sizing), it gave me the biggest pip-loss in Q2 2013 at a whopping 210 pips. But what makes this trade the most painful is that it was the first of many to come. I racked up loss after loss after loss after this trade. Ouch.
Thoughts on Q2 2013
Recognizing the Market Environment
Looking back, I realize that I could’ve done a better job of identifying trends and recognizing the market environment. My inability to do so led me to miss a lot of big moves, especially on yen crosses.
If you look at your charts, you’ll notice that they exhibited large, one-directional moves last quarter. In fact, you can pretty much say that yen pairs were trending up from April to late May and trending down from late May until the end of June.
Those big trends were something that I really shouldn’t have missed out on. In the future, I’ll make it a habit to determine my biases on my favorite crosses at the start of the week to help me catch any developing trends.
Making Adjustments on the Fly
I also noted that I could’ve been more conservative and reactive with a couple of my trades. I have a couple of trades in mind (like thise play on GBP/JPY and this EUR/GBP setup) that could’ve ended better if I had just adjusted my stop to break-even or locked in some profits since price had moved a lot in my favor already.
Looking forward, I plan to be less aggressive with taking profit. I’ve got to think more about preserving my capital rather than bagging big wins.
One Trade at a Time
This quarter wasn’t my best, but on a more positive note, I learned a very valuable lesson – to look at each trade one trade at a time. Even though I went through quite a rough drawdown, I didn’t let it affect my decision-making process.
I put each loss behind me and did my best to move on. I didn’t let past losses affect my future trading decisions. Yes, it was unfortunate that I had a string of losses, but it didn’t make me more desperate, nor did it make me overly fearful of another loss. And I feel that that’s an improvement that I can be proud of.
Phew! Now that I’ve put my thoughts into words, I feel much better! I’m actually excited for the quarter ahead because it gives me a clean slate and I can apply my new learnings.
I hope you guys had a great quarter. Feel free to tell me about it or share your thoughts in the comment box below!
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